Friday, May 24, 2019

Is Singapore a bad place to live

  1. High Cost of Living
  2. Income Inequality
  3. Weather is hot and humid
  4. Rude People
I loved Singapore for the general effectiveness of policies, low corruption and drugs, and also safe from natural disaster and fear of gun fires. However, still decide to look at the negative side (from online) just for neutrality and pen my thoughts.

  • High Cost of Living
"If you earn very well, life is excellent. Shopping, holidays, condo, car, investments etc. But if you’re just someone who works paycheck to paycheck at a low income you are still ok. You still have CPF savings. No one’s complaining anyway. Food and transportation is super cheap still (compared to Sydney)"

This is probably the biggest negative to everyone. If you just want slow and stable life till the end of your life, forget it. Things are competitive here in Singapore. In one way, the cost of high living forces people to work hard. The good thing is there is some kind of meritocracy implemented so you are not disadvantaged if you are capable enough. The bad thing is for people who might have some disability or wants to slow down or burn out. 

Want a car? Delay your retirement by maybe 10 years.
Call ride sharing Grab instead? Delay your retirement by maybe 5 years.

Nevertheless, the high cost will continue to stay this way and there are no natural resources (little moat except our skilled people) and the heavy reliance on investments (which mean companies will work hard to make money too)
  • Income inequality 
"I SEE OLD PEOPLE - working in low paying jobs. Some older people are taking it hard. Can’t afford to pay their home mortgages, probably from low income and/or bad finances previously so they have to keep on working. But it’s ok, as they seem happy."

This is always a tricky problem. It is definitely real. There are really poor people with poor living environment. Meritocracy would means these people would be left behind.

I don't study economic but I recalled people calling GST regressive tax. Poor people are worse off and GST is going to increase gradually too. 

Luckily for local elderly, there is Pioneer and Merdeka Generation. However, this create an expectation towards welfare state. A welfare state is at the expense of the younger generation. 

I recalled hearing recent DPM Heng mentioned that the SDIC (the one whereby government guaranteed your money back if the banks go down) costs the government several billions, much more than the stimulation boost during the economic crisis. It requires a drawdown from the reserve and SDIC was not a good idea actually but every one in the region was doing it. Nevertheless, Singapore still created SDIC to ensure trust from the public. Guess it is a tough balance. 
  • Weather is hot and humid
"The heat and humidity are simply constant and you can get sweaty by just standing still and breathing!"

Anyone who lived in Singapore knows it is hot and humidity. This is due to the location, amount of concrete building trapping heat and also global warming. Nevertheless, it is easily avoided by staying indoor with aircon. 

  • Rude People
"Sometimes though, I’d come across some rude folks. I was reading my book at a cafe and enjoying my awesome iced latte for another 30 minutes or so before packing up to leave. At this point, both my wife and I heard the mother telling her 7-or-8-year-old daughter “Oh, finally.

There is definitely some eye-catching news of people acting rudely and being videotaped at train, at coffee shop or even shops . There is also people doxing, shaming others online. Not sure if this is happening in other countries but there is growing 


These are just some quick thoughts and not meant to be comprehensive. Singapore is definitely not the worse place and the merits probably outweigh the negatives, therefore people are still coming in for the opportunities.

Friday, March 1, 2019

Worse and worser bet of 4D

Firstly, I discourage 4D or Toto, not because you cannot get rich with it but because you lose in the long term. Been debating in my mind how to write this in the right way, saying you win more is a lie because you are never gonna win in the long run. I also disliked the fact that people can treat it as a  facade for donating money/charity. Sometimes, I wonder if removing the charity portion might reduce the "good" people feel from buying. It is like how supermarket place "good" fruits and vegetable at the entrance such that you can balance off with "junk" food during checkout.

Anyway, let's focus on the maths as that what I liked to do. Been wanting to calculate the overall loss per ticket but got more important to do until Seedly posted about it

I find the post great and easy to read but there was some a hanging question in my head. Before I mentioned the questions, this is the summary:-

iBet can be worse off due to rounding: My first surprise that iBet can be worse off than buying number individually. I always thought it would be the same, but end up is that you lose more due to the rounding of prizes. Of course, this meant the only way not to be disadvantaged percentage wise is to bet more, which in turn means you lose more haha. A case of head you lose and tail you lose too.

My hanging question was: Is there a slightly optimised bet in 4D which you lose less due to rounding? Seedly only mentioned the disadvantaged but my mind was thinking if there was an advantage from rounding. 

Therefore, I went to did some sum if there was any good or bad. 
  • Firstly, when buying big, 24 permutations is the worst while keeping to just buying 1 number is the best.
  • Secondly, when buying small, 24 permutations is the worst again, while buying 1 number or 4 permutation iBet is the best. (Somehow I realised that the Small Return by Seedly seem to be calculated wrongly. I only get the much lower $0.58 than the $0.699. Left a comment to Seedly and hope they can relook or my calculation was wrong.)
  • Overall, buying big 1 number (in green) is supposed to be better in the long run while going small (24 permutations) is the worst. 
In summary, don't buy 4D. Save up for something else and YOLO it away.

Prize Category24 permutations12 permutations6 permutations4 permutations1 number
Big Return / $1 Bet$0.6576$0.6588$0.6588$0.6588$0.6590
1st Prize$83$166$335$500$2,000
2nd Prize$41$83$168$250$1,000
3rd Prize$20$40$85$127$490
Starter$10$20$41$62$250
Consolation Prize$3$6$10$15$60
Small Return / $1 Bet$0.5784$0.5796$0.5796$0.5800$0.5800
1st Prize$125$250$500$750$3,000
2nd Prize$83$167$333$500$2,000
3rd Prize$33$66$133$200$800

Monday, November 6, 2017

Life plans

Been some time since I blogged. Many things have changed but still trying new things as usual. Just a checkpoint of investment so far.


Investment plans 
* Bought a home with leverage (need to decide whether 2nd home make sense in 5 years time or invest in other things)
* Automated monthly investment with DBS into STI ETF 
* UOB One Account with spending
* CIMB eSaving Acct
* POSB Cashback Bonus (since got loan + credit card spent + invest) (think consider to stop in a year since the investment one is one year in T&C)
* Automated monthly investment into Co-op (~3% interest)

Short term plans ahead
* Monthly investment into Ethereum (started Gemini account and remit money over. Gonna start working it and learn on the way, e.g. get hardware wallet Ledger Nano S to secure the money?)

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Do you dare to buy STI now?


2 years passed since the last post and many things changed. I am closer to my goal of $3 million in asset, thanks to my full time job but still far from reaching the distant goal. I also invested in 2012 and made some gains but still could not beat the STI benchmark soundly. I learned to cut losses and try to ignore emotions during investment. Hence, I made the decision not to invest in individual stocks anymore. This will save me time spent in tracking, reading, buying and selling.

The 2 problems regarding investing in the STI now are:

  1. Investment Strategy
  2. Market Risk

Investment Strategy

The common strategy for investing is dollar cost average. However, I prefer not to use it as the theory does not feels correct. It does reduce the risks which I encountered sometimes, eg Biosensor which I had sold after it got below my 10% cut losses but soon rebounded higher. Several alternatives like lump sum and dollar value averaging are available. I wish to explore dollar value averaging once since I feeling dangerous about investing in STI now.

Dollar value averaging compensates more when the value drops and invest less when the value rises, unlike dollar cost average which uses a constant.

Market Risk

My biggest concern is the STI is near the peak now. All it takes is a bad news and the market could get into correction mode or reverse completely. Nevertheless, since Chinese New Year approaches and after getting some positive statistics from Yahoo about STI ETF, February feels like a good month.





Month% Monthly Gain vs 3 months laterSamples
Jan1.17%5
Feb3.59%5
Mar2.15%5
Apr2.35%5
May0.30%5
Jun-0.18%5
Jul-2.60%5
Aug-1.81%5
Sep-0.48%5
Oct0.72%5
Nov0.03%5
Dec-0.09%4

Conclusion

I will try buying STI and dollar value average one month later before selling in May, June.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Cash Offer: JAYA HOLDINGS LTD (J10)

Jaya Holdings Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company operates through two main divisions: Offshore Shipping and Shipbuilding. The Offshore Shipping Division is engaged in the owning and chartering of offshore support vessels in serving the offshore oil and gas, marine construction, mining, harbor tug operations and other related industries. The Shipbuilding Division is engaged in the building of vessels and vessel sale activities. Its vessels include anchor handling tug and supply vessels/anchor handling tugs, utility supply vessels, platform supply vessels, accommodation work barges and deck cargo barges. Its subsidiaries include Jaya Offshore Pte Ltd, which is engaged in ship chartering and ship management; Java Marine Lines Pte Ltd, which is engaged in ship owning, ship chartering, shipbuilding and vessel sale, and Jaya Offshore (H. K.) Limited, which is an investment holding company. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2010, it disposed 19 vessels.
Stock Chart
JAYA HOLDINGS LTD stock chart
Offer Price
$0.48

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Cash Offer: KIM ENG HOLDINGS LIMITED (K50)

Kim Eng Holdings Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The principal activities of the Company consists of stockbroking, futures broking, investment advisory, provision of corporate finance services, margin financing, money lending, fund management, provision of nominee and fiduciary services, investment holding, property investment and real estate development. It has four geographical segments: Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Other countries in which the Group operates comprise United States of America, United Kingdom, India, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. Its subsidiaries include Rezan Pte Ltd, Kim Eng Securities Pte. Ltd, Kim Eng Futures Pte Ltd, Kim Eng Finance (Singapore) Pte Ltd and KE Strategic Pte Ltd.
Stock Chart
KIM ENG HOLDINGS LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$3.1

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Review of Prediction for 2010 @ Jan 2010

Review of Predication for 2010

STI to go up by 5% to 3,040 at the end of the year. Just using the the upper end of PM prediction of GDP and relating to the stock market hopefully.

My optimism was right but the GDP prediction was so wrong.

Ringgit to strengthen against SingDollar which is currently 2.4

This site seem to indicate it drops to as low as 2.31. But probably around 2.33 then the strong SingDollar policy kick in to fight inflation.

Fiber optics plan in Singapore will be useless to most home owners. Don't think anyone found a good use of bandwidth except for illegal contents.


Report of Starhub CEO not sure if needed. Only 5% uses the fastest broadband service currently.
http://mis-asia.com/news/articles/starhub-ceo-not-sure-singaporeans-need-fiber-to-the-home

Also, I had the trial fiber optic and it wasn't as fast as I hoped for the download. Upload is quick but probably useless since I don't upload much stuff online.

Significant research advances of some crops. Perhaps there will be a finding of some genes that lead to better harvests or resistance to the climate changes.


No idea about this one at all and didn't read much into crops.

Google change their looks to cater for real-time search.


Yes with Google instant? But it isn't perfect or useful to most users and probably take up lots of bandwidth and money for Google too.