Thursday, December 3, 2009

Full Apex, NextInsight, Gambling

I read other financial blogs too, and interesting discover there is one on Full Apex. I had already profited from it and was surprised at how soon I managed to sell it. Perhaps it got to do with someone wanting to oppose it and feel the offer is undervalued.

Sometimes I read the NextInsight and how profitable the stock challengers mostly are and wonder if it is really so easy. You could then just mimic then and profit too then. Perhaps the stock rises because everyone follows the challengers and buy. It results in a self-fulfilling prophecy since everyone thinks they will profit.

I also read up some gambling theories, not from the bettor point of view but rather the organizer point of view. I am interested to know why do people are buy something that they know the odds are against them. I feel that equity investment is a form of gambling but the odds are much better than those offered by Singapore Pools. Of course, there are ways to win for sure with arbitrage but in Singapore there is only 1 legal gambling outlets so no chances to apply that. Basically, people continue to gamble, even when they lose,
a) underestimate the chance of losing, (most people are very bad with mental calculation)
b) near miss (where you miss by a number or different arrangement)
c) sense of ownership for the numbers (you buy your date of birth or car license plate)
d) huge prizes
e) revenge (emotionally want to win back your losses)
f) sense of winning (having lucky friends that win)

References:

  1. Blog on opposing Full Apex delisting @ I’ll do it myself
  2. Next Insight - Stock Challenge

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

i have a tips which it's quite true from my analysis. The 4 digit of the last malaysian's IC number normally will come out. My number have came out several time. But i seldom/never buy it as i don't have much luck in gambling. Well money earn from gambling always never last long. Trust me. It's only temporary. For example winning money from gambling activity like malaysian sport toto and use it to purchase something like car, equipment ..etc. will somehow become faulty, lose in later/few years or unable to pay finish a car/house instalment and bank have to take it away after a few years of using it. This i have seen many times through some of my friends experience. But money that earn by your own sweat and used it to buy anything proved to stay/last longer.

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