Friday, December 24, 2010

Cash Offer: ASA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD (A25)

ASA Group Holdings Limited (ASA) is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries is engaged in the manufacture and sale of tiles and related products. Its subsidiaries include Shanghai Fortune Ceramic Co., Ltd, Shandong ASA Ceramic Co., Ltd, Shanghai ASA Ceramic C., Ltd, ASA Ceramic Tec Holdings Ltd, Venture Up Investments Limited, Leader Tech Group Limited, Central Trinity Group Limited, Central Trinity Group Limited, Techbuild International Limited, Trade Accord Group Limited, Shanghai ASA Laticrete Adhesive Co., Ltd, and Shanghai Xirui Trading Limited. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in manufacture and sale of ceramic tiles and related products and investment holding.
Stock Chart
ASA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD stock chart
Offer Price
$0.04

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Cash Offer: FINANCIAL ONE CORP. (CL9)

Financial One Corp. is an investment holding company. The Company provides a variety of financing services to a customer base consisting primarily of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Taiwan and selects international markets, including the United States, Thailand, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Vietnam. The Company operates in six segments: finance and operating leases, installment sales, factoring, direct financing loans, commercial real estate and other financing loans, and other financing and non-financing business (including direct financing loans provided to corporate and individual customers through strategic alliances with commercial banks, non-performing loans collection, collection services and management of its investment portfolio). On March 20, 2009, the Company acquired Chailease Credit Service Co. Ltd. In January 2010, the Company announced the incorporation of the subsidiaries, namely Chailease International Company (Malaysia) Limited.
Stock Chart
FINANCIAL ONE CORP. stock chart
Offer Price
$0.485

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Cash Offer: MAP TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LIMITED (CU7)

MAP Technology Holdings Limited is an integrated data storage service provider. The Company’s principal businesses are categorized into four divisions: manufacture and sale of precision stamping products; manufacture and sale of die-cut components; plastic injection molding and mould design and fabrication, and provision of electronics manufacturing services (EMS) solutions. Its precision stamping division manufactures hard disk drives components, such as vinyl chloride monomer plates and disk clamps. Its die-cut components division manufactures customized products, primarily acoustic dampers for the hard disk drive (HDD) industry. The Company’s Plastic injection moulding segment offers plastic injection mould design and fabrication, injection molding, mechanical assembly of components for telecommunications, office automation and medical industries. Its provision of EMS solutions offers solutions for data storage devices, such as external HDDs of various form factors.
Stock Chart
MAP TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$0.0715

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Cash Offer: REYOUNG PHARM HOLDINGS LIMITED (R12)

Reyoung Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited is an investment holding company. The Company operates in two segments: pharmaceutical segment and the personal hygiene segment. Its pharmaceutical products are sold principally under its Reyoung brand name. The Company’s pharmaceutical products include penicillin-based antibiotics, traditional chinese medicine (TCM) formulated products, cephalosporin-based antibiotics and western medicine. Its personal hygiene products segment consists of sanitary napkins and disposable baby diapers. Its sanitary napkins and pantyliners are sold under its Yimu brand name. The Company also manufactures and sells disposable baby diapers under its own brand names Yibei and Tiaopidan.
Stock Chart
REYOUNG PHARM HOLDINGS LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$0.53

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Cash Offer: CHINA ANGEL FOOD LIMITED (CL8)

China Angel Food Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company operates in three segments: Mooncake products, Pastry products and Snack and other food products. Its portfolio of brands includes Angel, QiWang and YangYi. The Company’s range of products includes mooncakes, cookies, assorted confectionery and bakery products, as well as other packet sweets. The Company’s subsidiaries include Shenzhen Angel Food Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the production of mooncakes and pastries, and catering services; Shenzhen Angel Bakery Chainstore Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the manufacture and sales of bread, cakes, biscuits and pastries, and Hunan Yiqi (Tech) Agri Products Co., Ltd., which is engaged in processing and trading of agricultural products and by-products related to the Company’s principal business.
Stock Chart
CHINA ANGEL FOOD LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$0.17

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Friday, October 29, 2010

Cash Offer: THOMSON MEDICAL CENTRE LIMITED (5FV)

Thomson Medical Centre Limited operates a hospital, providing medical services, X-ray and ultrasound scanning and related facilities, and providing labor ward, operating theatre and medical clinic space to medical practitioners. It operates in two segments: hospital operations and ancillary services, and specialized and other services. Hospital operations provide integrated medical healthcare facilities and services for primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare with focus on women and children’s health. The ancillary services include fetal assessment services, diagnostic laboratory services, diagnostic imaging services, anti-aging services and parentcraft services, such as childbirth education, breast-feeding counseling and home care nursing. It provides fertility treatment under Thomson Fertility Centre Pte Ltd and cytogenetic laboratory services, which helps specialists determine the well being of the fetus under Thomson Pre-Natal Diagnostic Laboratory Pte. Ltd.
Stock Chart
THOMSON MEDICAL CENTRE LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$1.75

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Cash Offer: IDT HOLDINGS (SINGAPORE) LTD (I05)

IDT Holdings (Singapore) Limited is an investment holding company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of liquid crystal display (LCD) consumer electronic products. Its products are divided into four categories: Environmental Monitoring Devices, Timing Devices, Sports and Healthcare Products, and Other Products and Services. Environmental Monitoring Devices comprises a range of weather forecasting, monitoring and measurement devices, all using LCDs and including thermometers, humidity monitors, barometers, ultra violet (UV) detectors, weather radio alert systems and remote sensors, as well as home weather stations that track weather conditions and trends. Timing Devices includes projection timing devices, high-visibility LCDs, clocks that automatically adjust to daylight-saving time and leap years. The Other Products and Services category includes LCD electronic accessories, such as smartcard readers and trading products.
Stock Chart
IDT HOLDINGS (SINGAPORE) LTD stock chart
Offer Price
$0.54

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Insider Trading - Insider Alpha
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Probability Card Trick From Scam School



Just for fun, from Scam School. A simple probability trick. Given 1 deck of 52 cards. There are
a) 12 face cards ( 4 suits of J, Q, K)
a) 40 non-face cards ( 4 suits of 1, 2, ... 9)

Shuffling and separating the deck into 3 pile of cards, what are the odds of getting any face card at the top of the 3 piles? Without thinking, most people believed the chances are lower than chances of all face cards since there are so few face cards. However, the calculation shows otherwise:

Chnaces of getting at least 1 face card in 3 piles
= 1 - Chances of getting all face card
= 1 - (40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50)
= 0.552941176

Therefore, it is slightly more likely to get at least 1 face card due to probability.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

How is GIC faring?

Sources:
Business Times News
Temasek Review Discussion
GIC Report 2010



Most Singaporeans probably don't care about how GIC is investing money since we cannot change anything. I wonder how do GIC decides if they are doing well or not besides the rate of return.

Of course, higher rate of returns is clearly better, but it is not fair to judge a poor performance in depressing global economy or applaud if it is doing well in a booming economy. For example, Temasek Review compared the 20-year rate of return with
the Down Jones or S&P 500 index in September:

GIC had released a report yesterday showing that its 20-year nominal annual rate of return in US dollar terms jumped from 5.7 percent to 7.1 percent for the last 12 months which is hardly impressive considering the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 8.44 percent and the S&P 500 index has increased by 9.5 percent in the month of September alone.


There are no probably easy way to comment on the GIC performance since there isn't any benchmark displayed. A performance benchmark with perhaps a mixed of funds rather than a chart of rate of return might be more appropriate but it isn't easy to find a right benchmark since there aren't much fund with a similar size or objectives of the GIC. Warren Buffett, a well-known investor, used the S&P 500 with dividends as a comparsion although he has his own intrinsic value to measure the value of the business/companies he has a stake in. GIC does states its own performance criteria:

As an investment management company, we evaluate our performance in three ways:
whether we achieve a reasonable rate of return above global inflation for
the total portfolio;
how each investment professional or team performs against specific market benchmarks or absolute return targets;
and how our managers’ results compare with those of their peers in the industry.


We evaluate the performance of our investment professionals
against relevant market benchmarks such as the MSCI and
Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond indices.


They stated clearly they evaluate performance against relevant market benchmarks but I didn't see any performance comparison. It will be nice if could show the comparison instead of showing the 20-year rate of return chart and the portfolio allocation to let people who care see how well or poorly is our GIC faring.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cash Offer: Soilbuild (T94)

Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company operates in four segments: property development, which involves development of residential/commercial properties for sale; property investment, which involves properties held for rental yields and/or capital appreciation; construction, which involves in integrated building construction to support the Company's property development businesses, and others, which involve investment holding, renovation contractors and property management services. In April 2010, the Company acquired 100% interest in SB (Northpoint) Investment Pte. Ltd. (SB Northpoint).
Stock Chart
Soilbuild stock chart
Offer Price
$0.8

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Don't be an idiot in Marina Bays Sands Casino

Resources:
Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA)

Before playing in a casino, you must realized you cannot beat the casino in the long run. But, you can find which games can let you play longer for entertainment purposes. Therefore, I decided to look at their payout rates of their various games from the CRA website.

Money Wheel


SymbolCompartmentsPayoutWinning %Expected Payout
Fan24146.2%0.923076923
Crackers12323.1%0.923076923
Lantern8515.4%0.923076923
Vase4107.7%0.846153846
Chopsticks2203.8%0.807692308
Lucky Charm1451.9%0.884615385
Gold Ingot1451.9%0.884615385
Total52  



Seems like betting on any of the 3 most probable outcome will let you last the longest while betting on Chopsticks gives the worst returns. Approximately 14% differences between the 2 best and worst outcomes. Don't play this game as later games provide better outcome

Sic Bo
Sic Bo Odds Website I used to check some of my numbers.




SectionPayoutWin %Expected Payout
Small / Big148.6%0.972222222
Odd / Even148.6%0.972222222
Specific Triples 1800.5%0.837962963
Specific Doubles 117.4%0.888888889
Any Triple 312.8%0.888888889
   
Three Dice TotalPayoutWin %Expected Payout
4 or 17 621.4%0.875
5 or 16 312.8%0.888888889
6 or 15 184.2%0.791666667
7 or 14 124.6%0.601851852
8 or 13 89.7%0.875
9 or 12 711.6%0.925925926
10 or 11 612.5%0.875
   
Two Dice ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
1 and 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
2 and 3, 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
3 and 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
4 and 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
5 and 6 613.9%0.972222222
   
Three Single Die ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
126-135-234-256-346 302.8%0.861111111
123-136-145-235-356 302.8%0.861111111
124-146-236-245-456 302.8%0.861111111
125-134-156-246-345 302.8%0.861111111
    
Double Numbers With Single Die ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
112-113-114-115-116 501.4%0.708333333
221-223-224-225-226 501.4%0.708333333
331-332-334-335-336 501.4%0.708333333
441-442-443-445-446 501.4%0.708333333
551-552-553-554-556 501.4%0.708333333
661-662-663-664-665 501.4%0.708333333
    
Single Die Wager: PayoutWin %Expected Payout
Number on one Die/two Dice/three Dice1,2,1234.7%,6.9%,0.5%0.962962963
Three dice from four possible combinations:PayoutWin %Expected Payout
1-2-3-4 711.1%0.888888889
2-3-4-5 711.1%0.888888889
2-3-5-6 711.1%0.888888889
3-4-5-6 711.1%0.888888889


Betting on big/small and various other bet yield the result of 0.9722 meaning you lose around $0.0278 per $1 bet. Definitely better than the Money Wheel but careful not to bet on some of the bets that result in terrible losses per bet.

Roulette

Number/SectionPayoutWinning %Expected Payout
One number (Straight Up)352.7%0.972972973
Two numbers (Split)175.4%0.972972973
Three numbers (Street)118.1%0.972972973
Four numbers (Corner)810.8%0.972972973
6 numbers (Six Line)516.2%0.972972973
Column (12)232.4%0.972972973
Dozen (12)232.4%0.972972973
Low (1-18)148.6%0.972972973
High (19-36)148.6%0.972972973
Even / Odd148.6%0.972972973
Red / Black148.6%0.972972973


Interesting to note that the expected payout are exactly the same for all kinds for bets. The payout are also better than the money wheel game so it don't make sense to play the money wheel game.

I took a look at complete bet and still isn't 100% sure so I decides not to comment. However, Albert Einstein is reputed to have stated, "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it." But, most who steals or cheats are probably caught by Singapore strict watchers as seen in news.

I didn't examine most of the other games because they had certain variability like jackpot bonus, card games where card dealt can affect the current/next game.

Update: 24 Sep
I read about the Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) specification for casino games equipment and found an interesting note.

3.3.2 A game shall have at least one configuration setting that yields a minimum
theoretical statistical expectation that the minimum return-to-player
percentage
(RTP) of the game will be greater than or equal to 90.0% during
the expected lifetime of the game.


Just found it nice that casino gaming machines are not allowed to have a huge edge over the player but after some calculation I realized that 90% is just too huge an edge.

With an 90% RTP/Expected Returns, the following can be expected in 10 bets with an $1,000.


Bet #Amt Left from $1000
1900.00
2810.00
3729.00
4656.10
5590.49
6531.44
7478.30
8430.47
9387.42
10348.68

Playing in a game with 97.2% RTP

Therefore, you will have less than half your money if you used all your money in only 6 bets in an 90% RTP. However if you played in games with an 97.2% (Roulette), it became better.


Bet #Amt Left from $1000
1972.00
2944.78
3918.33
4892.62
5867.62
6843.33
7819.72
8796.76
9774.46
10752.77

Playing in a game with 97.2% RTP

You will have 75% of your money after 10 bets compared to 35% of your money after 10 bets in an 97.2% RTP. Nobody will gambled all-in in every bets so it isn't a realistic comparison but it shows the differences that 7.2% in odds can affect your money left. Nevertheless, people should not gamble thinking they will win the casino in the long run, especially in probability/luck based games.

Watch Man Utd vs Liverpool legally online with Youku

Resources:
Man Utd vs Liverpool Live Streaming @ Youku
Youku EPL Homepage

While Singaporeans pays increased fee for the EPL, Youku had secured the EPL rights and shows them online free and legal. I don't watch much soccer matches nowaday and is surprised that EPL allowed Youku to stream the videos. Although there are probably lots of other illegal sources elsewhere, I wondered how much Youku paid just to get the rights to play the games live.

A quick peek at a live match of Man Utd vs Liverpool, it lags once a while but is still accepted. However, the crowd volume exceeds the English commentary. Perhaps they are targeting China watchers where most probably don't understand the English commentary.

I wondered if they can justified their cost of getting the licensing rights and streaming to so many viewers. They currently has only an advertising model and probably using it to hype their future IPO to get even more funds and gain market share.

Making 124% with Sports Betting Week #41



Final closing winning bet
$ 10.0 Fund Carryover
$1,356.8 Winning From MIDDLESBROUGH vs READING

$1,366.8 Final Fund (from $1,100 invested)

Stats Summary
Profit = $ 266.8 over $1,100 (24%)
Inactive weeks = 23 of 41 (56%)
Bets won = 12 of 48 (25%)

Looking at the chart, there was only 2 times over the 41 weeks where the returns is over investment. On paper, the 24% returns in less than a year (41 weeks) looks impressive but I rather call this a lucky sequence given the possible problems that goes wrong.

Big Problems with system
Assuming last bet of $640 lost
It will takes 13 months of $100 funding to allow for a next bet. An addicted gambler who can resist a 13 months of inactivity, should already quit. Assuming the next bet of $1,280 won, the ROI will be 7.9% for 93 weeks.

Chances of exponential bets
Given the bet won percentage of 25%, running a simulation test program of 10,000 runs, the maximum bet easily reached $17,179,869,183 which is a crazy amount. Even with a better win percentage of close to 50%, there is still a chance of getting a long stretch of losing streak.

Conclusion
This betting system is better left untouched.

Sports Bet History Table


Week #Week InvestmentWinningsBetsFund LeftBets MadeLast Bets WonTotal Investment MadeROIInactive?
11000208040100100.0%0
2011.53556.54110091.5%0
300506.53010056.5%0
40102.5357443100109.0%0
5100090848020087.0%0
6008046020042.0%0
70004002002.0%1
80004002002.0%1
9100010044030034.7%0
100828061230028.7%0
110006003002.0%1
120006003002.0%1
13100010063040026.5%0
14016880942240043.5%0
150080141040023.5%0
1600014004003.5%1
17100080341050022.8%0
1800034005006.8%1
1900034005006.8%1
2000034005006.8%1
21100001340060022.3%1
220001340060022.3%1
230001340060022.3%1
241000160741070033.4%0
250336320902170058.6%0
26000900070012.9%1
27000900070012.9%1
281000160301080023.8%0
290320320301180043.8%0
3006403203501180083.8%0
310003500080043.8%1
32100004500090050.0%1
330004500090050.0%1
340004500090050.0%1
350004500090050.0%1
361000055000100055.0%1
3700055000100055.0%1
3800055000100055.0%1
3900055000100055.0%1
4010006401010110059.1%0
4101356.801366.8011100124.3%1
Sum11003016.82750 4812  23

Saturday, September 18, 2010

MAS fined Malaysian fund manager $500,000 for market manipulation

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) fined a Malaysian fund management firm S$500,000 after being found guilty of market manipulation.

Pheim Asset Management and its founder Dr Tan Chong Koay were each ordered by the Singapore High Court to pay S$250,000, and legal costs, to the MAS, after being found to have committed market rigging offences.

According to the MAS, Pheim bought shares of United Envirotech within the final half an hour of trading on three consecutive days in 2004. These trades accounted for almost 90% of transactions for those shares over the period, causing their price to rise by 17%.

The High Court found that Dr Tan had bought the shares to inflate their price, enabling various Pheim funds to outperform their benchmarks.

Leo Mun Wai, assistant managing director in the capital markets group at the MAS said: “Fund managers should not engage in window dressing practices that would mislead investors as to the performance of securities and the funds under their management.

“As this case illustrates, MAS will not hesitate to pursue and take stern action against anyone who attempts to rig our capital markets, regardless of whether the perpetrator is in Singapore or overseas.”

About Pheim Fund Previous Accolades
-- Best of the Best 2008, CEO of the Year for Malaysia
-- Best Mixed Asset Balanced Islamic Fund for 5 years period, 2008
-- ASEAN Emerging Companies Growth Fund Ltd
-- Pheim Malaysia's Largest Account
-- Pheim Malaysia's Dana Makmur

Soccer betting with Martingale system #31-#40

Bet

$350 Fund Carryover
$300 Funding (Accelerates 3 months of $100 funding to end this test quicker)

$640, MIDDLESBROUGH vs READING Home 2.12

$ 10 Fund Left (from $1,100 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, September 17, 2010

CPF Withdrawal Reaching 55 and After 55

Resources:
Online CPF withdrawal calculator
Discounted Singtel Share Checker
Note: Based on a person reaching 55 next year.

Went to CPF with my parents to learn more about the CPF when she reached 55. CPF Website did include a table and calculator for more information regarding withdrawal but it is better to ask. Generally, there are only 2 cases based on the sum of all 3 accounts (ordinary, special and medisave).


  • Less than Minimum Sum + Medisave Required Amount => Withdrawal a percentage(see table) of your whole balance or at least $5,000(provided you had at least $5,000). The rest if any will be transferred to your new Retirement Account.
  • More than Minimum Sum + Medisave Required Amount => Withdrawal balance with the Minimum Sum transferred to your new Retirement Account.

The day You Turn 55Withdrawal percentage of cash balances at age 55
On or before 31 Dec 200850%
1 Jan – 31 Dec 200940%
1 Jan – 31 Dec 201030%
1 Jan – 31 Dec 201120%
1 Jan – 31 Dec 201210%

The percentage only affects you if you did not exceed your Minimum Sum + Medisave Required Amount. Initially I was confused and thought the percentage everyone.

If you had less than the Minimum Sum + Medisave Required Amount, I believe your property can be used as a pledge if approved. Since my parent exceed the amount, we didn't asked about it.

After 55
The retirement account with your Minimum Sum will continue to accrued interest till you reached 65. You can request to withdraw balances (if you are working and continue to receive contribution in your account) yearly at your birthday provided you have more than your Minimum Sum and Medisave Required Amount.

Stock
Still not 100% sure about the stockholding since my parent wasn't sure either of their investment. My parents had DBS fund with UOB Investment(but she bought at DBS) and some discounted Singtel shares. Regarding her DBS fund, an enquiry at POSB mentions that we need to approach them to sell the fund. Confusing for me since the CPF statement mentioned UOB as the investment bank. Furthermore, the charges and refund in the CPF statement is confusing too. There is a $2 bank charge quarterly but the more confusing amount is a $30 refund half-yearly from UOB.

For the discounted Singtel Share, I couldn't find the type A,B or C shares as my parent mentioned and only found an overall amount through the online discounted Singtel Share checker. (I cannot believed the security of allowing anyone to see others shareholding as long as they had their IC number. Furthermore, I founded out Mr Lee Kuan Yew had the same amount of discounted share as my mum and weirdly, Mr Lee Hsien Loong didn't had any.)

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Soccer betting with Martingale system #30

Bet

$ 30 Fund Carryover
$640 Winning from ZOBAHAN vs POHANG

$320, PSV vs SAMPDORIA, Home 2.0

$350 Fund Left (from $800 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Soccer betting with Martingale system #29

Bet

$ 30 Fund Carryover
$320 Winning from HULL CITY vs DERBY

$320, ZOBAHAN vs POHANG, Home 2.0
$320, (not enough fund)

$ 30 Fund Left (from $800 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Monday, September 13, 2010

Soccer betting with Martingale system #28

Bet
Ignoring last match that was abandoned when in calculating in final result.

$ 30 Fund Carryover
$160 Refund from YOUNG LIONS vs GUOAN match abandoned due to brawl

$160, HULL CITY vs DERBY, Home 2.0
$320, (not enough fund)
$320, (not enough fund)

$ 30 Fund Left (from $800 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Monday, September 6, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #26-#28

This week's bet

$ 90 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$160, YOUNG LIONS vs GUOAN, Home 2.05
$320, (not enough fund)
$320, (not enough fund)

$ 30 Fund Left (from $800 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, August 27, 2010

Cash Offer: MCL LAND LIMITED (M25)

MCL Land Limited is a Singapore-based company. The Company acts as a holding company for a group of companies principally engaged in property investment and development, and real estate management. The Company's assets are located in Singapore. It derives revenues primarily from sale of the Company's development properties in Singapore. The Company's subsidiaries include MCL Land Holdings Pte Ltd, MCL Land (Serangoon) Pte Ltd, MCL Land (Grange) Pte Ltd, Richdeal Pte. Ltd., Superport Pte. Ltd., Maxgrowth Pte. Ltd., MCL Land Realty Pte. Ltd., MCL Land (Prime) Pte. Ltd. and Caseldine Investments Pte Ltd.
Stock Chart
MCL LAND LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$2.45

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Cash Offer: EASTERN ASIA TECHNOLOGY LTD (E08)

Eastern Asia Technology Limited is a Singapore-based company. The principal activities of the Company are those of investment holding and provision of management services. The Company operates in three business segments: Audio/Video (A/V) Electronics, which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of audio-video electronic products; Speaker Systems, which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of speaker products, and Distribution, which is engaged in marketing and distribution of consumer electronics and household appliances products.
Stock Chart
EASTERN ASIA TECHNOLOGY LTD stock chart
Offer Price
$0.138

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Cash Offer: HYFLUX Water Trust LTD (D7T)

Note: Showing info for Hyflux but delisting is for its listed water trust

Hyflux Ltd is a Singapore-based investment holding company engaged in seawater desalination, raw water purification, wastewater cleaning, water recycling, water reclamation and ultra pure water production for municipal and industrial clients, as well as home consumer filtration and purification products, and design, building and sale of water treatment plants, seawater desalination plants, wastewater treatment plants and water recycling plants under service concession arrangements. Its renewable resources management comprise of development of membrane applications in resource recovery, waste recycling and energy reclamation, including applications, such as used oil recovery and recycling; development and commercialization of specialty materials, such as L-lactic acid from natural renewable resources; and separation, concentration and purification treatments for manufacturing process streams. On July 9, 2009, it acquired additional 41.5% interest in Lube Oil Re-fining Co., LLC.
Stock Chart
HYFLUX LTD stock chart
Offer Price
$0.78

Reference: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Note: Showing info for Hyflux but delisting is for its listed water trust

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #25

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 6th August.

$ 74 Fund Carryover
$336 Last Time Winnings of FREIBURG vs FC SOCHAUX, Home 2.1

$160, MARSEILLE vs PARIS SG, Home 2.15
$160, BATE BORISOV vs FC COPENHAGEN, Home 2.3
$160, (not enough fund)

$ 90 Fund Left (from $700 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Monday, July 26, 2010

Cash Offer: Royal Sporting House LIMITED (R04)

RSH Limited is a Singapore-based company. It is engaged in retailing, wholesaling, importing, exporting and dealing in sports, golf and active lifestyle products, retailing of fashion and lifestyle products and investment holding. The Company has a portfolio covering four key product categories: sports, golf and active lifestyle, fashion, watches, and beauty, and cosmetics. It has operating segments in Southeast Asia, Middle East, South Pacific and North Asia. As of March 31, 2010, the Company's subsidiaries include RSH (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Aryan (SEA) Private Limited, Gagan Holdings Pte Ltd, Prasan Pte. Ltd, Prasan Pte. Ltd, Navya (SEA) Pte. Ltd and Royalvasco Pte. Ltd.


Stock Chart
RSH LIMITED stock chart
Offer Price
$0.84

References: SGX Offer Document

Other Resources
Finanical Times Summary
Google Finance Overview
Reuters Finanical Summary and Ratio

Monday, July 12, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #22-#24

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 6th August.

$134 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$160, FREIBURG vs FC SOCHAUX, Home 2.1
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$ 74 Fund Left (from $700 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, July 2, 2010

Cash Offer: Parkway (P27)

References: SGX Offer Document

Company Info:

Parkway Holdings Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in the business of private hospital ownership and management, and related healthcare services, management of medical clinics, provision of clinical research services, ownership and management of radiology clinics, provision of diagnostic laboratory services, provision of managed care and related services, underwriting of accident and healthcare insurance policies, provision of fund management, and consultancy services and investment holding. The Company operates in two business segments: hospitals and healthcare services. On May 1, 2009, the Company’s 40% owned joint venture, Pantai Hospitals Sdn. Bhd, completed the acquisition of Hospital Pantai Sungai Petani Sdn. Bhd.

Offer Price
$3.78

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Cash Offer: DESIGN STUDIO FURNITURE (D11)

References: SGX Offer Document

Company Info:

Design Studio Furniture Manufacturer Ltd is a Singapore-based company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture, supply and installation of paneling products, such as kitchen and vanity cabinets, wardrobes, doors and doorframes, and furniture components; the provision of interior fitting-out services, and structural works for hospitality, commercial and retail properties, such as hotels, resorts, office, shops and bank branches. The Company also acts as the distributor for furniture products of overseas brand in Singapore and Brunei. The Company operates in three segments: residential property projects segment, hospitality and commercial projects segment, and distribution projects segment. Its subsidiaries include DS Furniture Manufacturer Sdn. Bhd, Design Studio Furniture (Shanghai) Co., Ltd, DS Interior Contracts & Renovation (Shanghai) Co., Ltd and D S Interior Decoration (Middle East) LLC.

Offer Price
$0.55

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Withdrawal of Texchem Cash Offer

SGX Document - Texchem Withdrawal

The withdrawal of offer will probably means that people who bought it for the cash offer will try to sell it, even at a discount. I did see some low buying price and still pondering what steps to take next.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #18-#21

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 9th July.

$ 34 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$134 Fund Left (from $600 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Cash Offer: Eng Kong (E06)

References: SGX Offer Document

Company Info:

Eng Kong Holdings Limited (Eng Kong) is an investment holding company, engaged in the provision of management and support services to the subsidiaries. The Company operates in four segments: container depot operation, which provides mainly storage and handling, repair and transportation services for empty containers; warehousing and container freight station (CFS), which is involved in stuffing and unstuffing of outbound and inbound general cargo, warehousing of cargo which require long term storage and rental income from warehouse; container sales, agencies, which is involved in trading of used containers, and survey acting as container leasing agents and inspection of new containers, and others, which includes rental income from properties and treasury activities. In March 2010, the Company announced that Eng Kong Investment Holdings Limited, its dormant wholly owned subsidiary, completed voluntary liquidation proceedings.

Offer Price
$0.295

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Texchem delisting delayed?

Texchem

The Board refers to the announcements made by the Company on 8 February 2010 and 3 March 2010 in relation to the Delisting and the Exit Offer (“Announcements”).

The Board wishes to inform Shareholders that the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited has informed the Company that in light of the independent financial advisor’s opinion that the financial terms of the Exit Offer, on balance, are not reasonable, it is unable to review and clear the draft Circular as it considers that the proposed Delisting in its present form does not meet with the requirement of Rule 1309(1) of the Listing Manual, which requires that a reasonable exit alternative be offered to Shareholders and holders of any other classes of listed securities to be delisted.

The Company has been informed by the Offeror, Texchem Resources Bhd, that it is considering the next course of action and will inform the Company in due course. It is possible that the Offeror may revise or withdraw the Exit Offer completely.

Shareholders are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the Shares and refrain from taking any action in relation to their Shares which may be prejudicial to their interests. Persons who are in doubt as to the action they should take should consult their stockbroker, bank manager, solicitor or other professional advisers.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Win a iPad from Citibank



From now till 30 Jun 2010, you just need to refer 10 friends to sign up for a Citibank Credit Card or Citibank Ready Credit and you'll be rewarded with the most exclusive gifts this season! Find out more details here











Terms and Conditions

1. Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit customers ("Eligible Customers") who introduce contacts via Citibank's website at citibank.com.sg in accordance with these terms and conditions are eligible to participate in the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special (the "Promotion").
2. Subject to these terms and conditions, Eligible Customers will receive a redemption letter with the redemption details of the promotional gift he/she is entitled to. The Apple iPad or Sony Vaio Netbook “10.1” or Nintendo Wii or Sony PS3 or TANGS voucher will hereafter be referred to as ("Promotional gift")
3. An Eligible Customer will only receive his/her redemption letter if the contacts he/she introduced (i) establish his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit via Citibank's website, (ii) become Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit customers and (iii) gives his/her consent to Citibank to inform the Eligible Customer of the establishment of his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account.
4. If more than one Eligible Customer introduces the same contact and a Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account is subsequently opened, the first Eligible Customer who sent in the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Referral Form will be entitled to the Promotional gift.
5. Regardless of the number of Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit accounts applied for by a contact, the Eligible Customer will only be deemed as having made one (1) successful referral.
6. Subject to each of the contacts giving his/her consent to inform the Eligible Customer as stated in clause 3 above, the redemption letter will be sent to the Eligible Customer to his/her last known mailing address within two (2) months from the promotion end date.
7. Eligible Customers will not be entitled to receive the Promotional gift if the contact is:
(a) an existing Citibank Credit Card / Ready Credit customer, or
(b) an existing Citibank Credit Card customer who is upgrading his/her Citibank Credit Card, or
(c) a person who has closed off his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account within the last six (6) months.
8. There is no limit to the number of contacts that an Eligible Customer can introduce.
9. The Promotional gift is subject to availability and is offered on a first-come-first served basis. Citibank reserves the right to replace the Promotional gift with items of similar value at its discretion without notice.
10. The Promotional gift is not refundable or exchangeable for cash or other reward items from Citibank.
11. Citibank is not supplier of the products and/or services redeemed/purchased using the TANGS shopping vouchers and will not accept any liability in relation thereto.
12. Citibank's decision on all matters relating to the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special, including without limitation on the time of receipt of Citibank Member-Get-Member Referral Forms by Citibank is final.
13. Citibank reserves the right to vary, delete or add to any of these terms and conditions from time to time at its discretion. These terms and conditions prevail over the contents of any brochure or other promotional material advertising the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special.
14. "Citibank" means Citibank Singapore Limited.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #17

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 11th June.

$ 14 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$80, OMIYA ARDIJA vs S HIROSHIMA, Away 2.1
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$34 Fund Left (from $500 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Detailed Analysis about Singapore $5m Toto

Winning the $5m Toto is probably in most people mind and these are some simple analysis to understand the game better. I will never buy TOTO or 4D, knowing how profitable they are to Singapore Pools. Unless it isn't a losing game, which is impossible since their goal is to make money "responsibly".

Odds of winning
The odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 8,145,060. The calculation is done by having

45*44*43*42*41*40 / (6*5*4*3*2*1)

Logically, this means we have to buy 8 million tickets @ $0.5 before we win the top prize.
This equates to $4,072,530 million.

How long to win a top prize
Given 2 draws a week, and the need of 8 million tickets to win a top prize. It will take a buyer who gets a ticket, 4 million weeks = 1 millions months = 84,844 years. To hopefully win a top prize within 50 years , a person needs to buy 1,696 tickets every draw.

Tax if you win
Zero, as stated in IRAS. There seems to be a 3% withholding tax for non-Singapore resident, but not confirmed.

Claiming prize
You have 180 days from the date of the draw to claim your prize before your winning ticket becomes invalid. If you win above $5,000, you need to collect your cheque at Singapore Pools main branch in PoMo. Not sure if Singapore Pools reduce the amount if lump sum cheque is taken. Based on wikipedia lottery, "it is not uncommon to find that a ticket for a major lottery is worth less than one third of its purchase price". This can be a important factor since 1/3 will means alot.

Likely number of tickets sold
Based on the last 13 draws, there are 13 winners for the top prize. This indicates an average of 1 winner every draw. Based on assumption, there are probably 8 million tickets sold every draw to generate a winner every draw, ignoring the increased probability of buyers when prize money increases.


Common Mistake
Based on the law of large number, given that the draw is conducted fairly, the occurrence of each numbers should be evenly spread. This leads to many different theories where people buy the least occurring numbers based on previous draws. The mistake is that the previous draws are independent from the next draw. Therefore, most analysis based on previous draws are groundless and ineffective in prediction.


Singapore Pools
The worst case for Singapore Pools is everyone buys an unique set of numbers. Because their prize money is fixed, this result in the least revenue and loss based on the next $5m draw. However, the buying of unique set of numbers is impossible since everyone just buy on their own and the popularity of certain "lucky" numbers. The best case for buyers are pooling as much money as possible to buy totally different sets of numbers.

Previous newsletters by Singapore Pools
Singapore Pools did release some information about previous winners in the newsletter that is stopped already. Starting from 2004, you can go through the newsletters online
http://www.singaporepools.com.sg/jsp/lottery/winning_times_012004.jsp

Newsletter summary
1st Issue 2004
There are 2 winners. A mother bought for same set of numbers 10 years and won $1.4 million after it is shared with 2 winners. The 2nd winner is a constructor worker from India.

2nd Issue 2004
A grandmother bought a System Roll entry with two numbers derived from her handphone number, and two from the hospital ward numbers where two of her grandchildren were born. The fifth was her personal favourite number, winning $0.68 million.

In another draw, with 2 winners. A 50-year-old just bought on instinct, collecting $1.3m.

For the next draw, the Indonesian Chinese winner is having a shopping trip from Batam to Singapore.

1st Issue in 2005
This is the first issue where there are names and photos taken for winners. Mr Wu Xiaohu won $2.84m for the first prize. The winners also wrote about their though winning the prizes in this issue.

2nd Isuse in 2005 (8 winners)
Hongbao draw
Gender: 7 males 1 female
Age: Youngest 28, oldest 66. Half are in early 40s.
Family: 6 married
"Investment": None spent more than $100, the least spent $8
Gains: Most intend to share with family and children education

Amount of winners:
>200k winners in each TOTO Hongbao Draw
>100k when prize is above $2m,
20k on typical draw

3rd Issue in 2005
From Jan to Jun 2005
- Numbers of TOTO and Singapore Sweep millionaries : 22
- Total prize payout: $165,765,791
- Total number of winning shares for TOTO: 1,698,755

2nd Issue in 2006
Mention of Singapore Pools being part of World Lottery Association (WLA). An international organization of 136 lotteries from 74 countries. They combined annual revenue in excess of US$120 billion.

1st Issue in 2008
Last Issue found on the web.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #16

No fund available till next monthly fund.

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May.

$14 Fund Carryover

$80, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$14 Fund Left (from $400 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, April 30, 2010

PreOffer Announcement: Sim Siang Choon (594)

References: SGX - SIM SIANG CHOON

Company Info:
Sim Siang Choon Ltd is a Singapore-based investment holding business engaged in the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Establishment operates in 3 segments: bathroom, which comprises sanitary ware, shower screens, taps and hand showers, baths and spas, vanity tops, bathroom cabinets and bathroom accessories; kitchen and others, which comprises kitchen cabinet systems, kitchen sinks and appliances product, and assignment which includes results from supply of sanitary wares to construction contracts. The Company operates in Singapore. The Establishment’s wholly owned subsidiary is Sim Siang Choon Hardware (S) Pte Ltd, which is engaged in dealing of all kinds of sanitary hardware, appliances, accessories and fixtures for use in bathroom, toilets and kitchens.



Offer Price
$0.11

The offer price is almost half of the current price, meaning a huge discount. Not sure why though.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Bought 170 lots of Texchem @ 0.13

I managed to get Texchem @ 0.13, probably can be patient with 0.125 instead. Regardless, I prefer to get it quick and reduce my time needed to observe the market. With this buying, I will need not do anything unless anything unexpected occurred.

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #15

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May.

$94 Fund Carryover

$80, SCHLK 04 vs W BREMEN, Home 2.05
$80, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$14 Fund Left (from $400 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Pre-Conditional Cash Offer: LOW KENG HUAT (F1E)


References: SGX Offer Document

Company Info:

Low Keng Huat (Singapore) Limited is a Singapore-based company. The principal activities of the Company consist of general building contractors and investment holding. It operates in four segments: construction, property development, hotels and investments. Operations in construction comprise building and engineering work. Development refers to property development. Operations in hotels comprise owning and operating of hotels. Investments refer to investment in properties and shares in quoted and unquoted equities. In addition, the Company owns deluxe hotels in Perth (Australia) and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) under the in-house brand Duxton Hotel. Its other hospitality related business is food and beverage business in Singapore. Amongst its investment portfolio are investment properties in Singapore, Malaysia and China.

Offer Price
$0.465

Note that the offer is pre-conditional. The conditional are mostly just the permission from regulatory bodies and shareholders. The timeline is expected to satisify the conditions on or about 23 July 2010. There isn't any premium since the offer is the same price as the last transacted price.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #14

Getting closer to finishing all the positions for assessing the ROI. A quick calculation makes me wonder if I miscalculated somewhere because the possible return is better than I expect.

The worst case is you run out of capital to fund the bets and you kept losing bets. It can happen since bets double each time you lose and grows exponentially. With the current largest bet position of $160, another 3 wrong bets will result in $160 * 2 * 2 *2 = $1,280 which is 12 times the $100 monthly fund.

The best case is all bets are correct from this stage. Very unlikely. If the odds represent probability it is the probably of tossing 4 heads in a row. 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625 or 6.25%. If it does happen, the final result should be fund available + bets positions remaining = 6 + 168 + 40 + 40 + 160 + 160 = $574 over the $400 invested. Something must be wrong but I delay the review till the positions are fully closed.

This week's bet


The next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May. Betting on the smaller $40 positions instead of 1 $160 just for fun. Even if the 2 bets lost, there can at least be 1 more bet at least next month.

$ 6 Fund Carryover
$168 Winnings from Last Week

$40, ETOILE FC vs SAF FC, Away 2.05
$40, MAINZ vs E FRANKFURT, Home 2.05
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$94 Fund Left (from $400 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Saturday, April 17, 2010

1 USD = 1.34017 SGD

1 USD = 1.34017 SGD

That is the rate Paypal is currently giving me for exchanging for $100+ USD dollar. I don't dabble with forex but a quick google "1 usd to sgd" gives me 1.37260069 which is around 2.4% higher. Should be fair given I see somewhere the fee for forex in Paypal is 2.5%.

An alternative to letting Paypal gets the 2.5% profit is to direct sell to others in need of Paypal USD fund in exchange for fund transfer to my local bank account. Saw people posting that in some local forums.

http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=2613282

His rates seem to imply it should be possible to sell the balance this way. Will definitely consider this option.

US$1 to US$19 -------- 1.40
US$20 to US$49 -------- 1.39
US$50 to US$99 -------- 1.385
US$100 to US$499 -------- 1.38
US$500 to US$999 -------- 1.375
US$1000 & above -------- 1.37

Friday, April 16, 2010

China Life cash out

Got the $17,800 from China Life delisting, earning $739.92 since I bought it in 26th January. Gross return is 4.34%, annualized return is 19.79%. However it is still worse than the return if I invested in the STI ETF which is around 34.00% annualized.

Been thinking about ASA group which is around $0.020 from the $0.055 which I bought. It is probably due to the highly possible delisting since it does not meet SGX conditions to keep its listing status.

I was thinking whether to sell it when it was $0.06 - $0.065 but decide to keep it since it still haven't show its potential. I only saw it drops to $0.02 pretty late but I did saw it on the newspaper. I think one saying "Cut Losses and Let Profits Run" makes me feel that the decision not to sell is correct. However, I lack a way to cut losses since I see it drops only quite late because I don't track the market often.

My final thoughts is what to do if the company has to delist. I should sell it since there might not be any way to recover the money if it delisted. But, I am still hesitant and still wish to hold on to it. Probably decide only when it really get to that situation.

My idea now is whether there is an opportunity to profit from shorting these watchlist companies when their 3-year limit are up. I will still keep buying delisting companies since I don't need to track or spend time on the market. There is still a risk that the auditors didn't do a good job and there isn't sufficient proof that the company can pay the cash offer as stated.

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #13

New funding, with the next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May. The goal is still to close this as soon as possible and assess the ROI.

This week's bet


$ 6 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$20, CAGLIARI vs PALERMO, Away 2.1
$40, STUTTGART vs LEVERKUSEN, Home 2.1
$40, FREIBURG vs NBERG, Home 2.1
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$6 Fund Left (from $400 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, April 2, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #12

No funding, will get next $100 monthly fund @ 16th April

This week's bet


$ 6 Fund Carryover

$20, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$6 Fund Left (from $300 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Cash Offer: Radiance Group (5DC)


References: SGX - Radiance Group Cash Offer

Company Info:


Radiance Group Limited, formerly Radiance Electronics Limited, is an investment holding company. The Company operates through four product segments: satellite communications, computer peripherals, other products, and management and investment (M&I) activities. The Company provides electronics manufacturing services (EMS) to customers who are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) or original design manufacturers (ODMs) of products in the satellite communications, computer peripherals, medical and consumer electronics industries. It is involved in box build and printed circuit board assembly services catering to the needs of the low to moderate volume customers and high product mix for satellite communications products such as Low Noise Block (LNB) converters and satellite signal distribution equipment and accessories; computer peripherals, such as keyboards, scanners and keypad/key-panel console for inkjet printers, and other medical and consumer electronics products.


Offer Price

$0.07618

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #11

Will be closing all the positions as soon and will not start any more bets. It will probably takes a few months to completely close all the bets. Also, I has not been blogging because I don't wish to waste time on the market till I cash out from ChinaLife. Google captcha human verification don't seem to be working as I starts to see some spam comments on this blog.

This week's bet


$ 4 Fund Carryover
$82 Winnings

$20, (not enough fund, used for the $80 to max use)
$40, (not enough fund, used for the $80 to max use)
$40, (not enough fund, used for the $80 to max use)
$40, (not enough fund, used for the $80 to max use)
$80, BOCH vs E FRANKFURT, Home 2.2
$160, (not enough fund)

$6 Fund Left (from $300 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Friday, March 19, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #10

Added the bets for this week after several weeks of no betting due to no funding. The Martingale system does feel very volatile and not for everyone.

This week's bet


$4 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Fund

$20, SCUNTHORPE vs PLYMOUTH, Home 2.05
$20, SCUNTHORPE vs PLYMOUTH, Home 2.05
$20, SHEFFIELD WED vs DERBY, Home 2.05
$20, (not enough fund, used for $40 to max money used)
$40, SHEFFIELD WED vs DERBY, Home 2.05
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $300 invested)

(accidently posted on wrong date, overriding previous blog entries)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Monday, March 15, 2010

Experience with Paypal and DBS

Got the reply from POSB/DBS and I decide to change my name according. Many thanks to Samantha Pang of DBS. So I just used the same name with the hanyu pinyin but the brackets removed. I also received the 2 paypal deposits and verfied my paypal account.

Although the amount was only $0.26, I wonder if someone will exploit PayPal by mass opening lots of bank account and verifying them, and pocketing the transfer by PayPal.

I had some Paypal balance and the currency rate for SGD/USD are
1 USD = 1.35866 SGD
1 SGD = 0.699065 USD

Calculating the rates, 1.35866 * .699065 = 0.9497916529,
This imply Paypal is making around 1 - 0.9497916529, = 5.02% for the spread/bid

Perhaps selling the USD currency balance directly to others is more worthwhile for those who wish to shop in USD currency but have only SGD, creating a win-win situation. Will consider the options when I got more than the $30+ dollar inside. I was also charged 3.4% + $0.30 USD, probably for Cross-Border Payments I think.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Cash Offer : AVAPlas


References: SGX Offer Document

Avaplas Limited is engaged in the manufacturing and sales of precision engineering plastic injection moulding and its secondary processes, as well as the sub-assembly and sale of plastic components. The Company operates in three business divisions: printing, imaging and computer peripherals, which is engaged in the manufacture and distribution of computer peripherals; consumer electronics, which is engaged in the manufacture and distribution of electronic consumer goods, and medical disposable, industrial products and others, which is engaged in the manufacture and distribution of medical and industrial products. It has operations in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and People’s Republic of China. Its subsidiaries include Avaplas Precision Plastics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd, Avaplas Sdn Bhd and Avaplas (Thailand) Limited.

Offer Price


$0.1

Friday, March 12, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #9

Nothing to update again as no fund available. One question remains in my mind when I think of gamblers. If your parents wishes to borrow money from you to gamble, will you lend them any? Perhaps I should solve this problem by getting enough money so that it is not a problem.

This week's bet


$4 Fund Carryover

$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Berkshire Shareholder Letter 2009


References: Berkshre Shareholder Letter 2009 PDF

The 2009 shareholder letter for berkshire is available. There is quite a bit of explanation of how Berkshire measure and operate as there are new shareholders this year. I also see lots of praising of impressive CEO and managers and explanation of business that are performing poorly. Worth a read if you have time.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Trying to link bank account and Paypal



Although I study computer science, I am a slow adopter to most technology. I still love to reach paper statement of my POEM account monthly instead of getting an email statement (sorry about the trees, but I reuses the empty side for notes).

I decide to open a Paypal account because I might need it, since my Adsense is reaching $10 and might need to input payment information.

A sidenote: CNA - POSB $2 fall-below fee if daily balance < $1,500
I didn't see this before so hopefully they didn't implement it on my father saving account. I always thought the limit was only $500.

POSB - Fees for POSB Passbook Saving Accounts. I check online and still find the limit at $500 though and checked DBS Savings Plus Account, which is also $500. I am starting to prefer UOB since it give me monthly interest, always nicer than POSBank that seems to only update yearly or my account have too little cash to generate even 1 cents of interest.

Back to my bank account issue, I am still trying to understand what name to place on my Paypal to just link my bank account since my bank account contains my name with (hanyu pinyin). Paypal doesn't allow () when inputting the name therefore I am emailing POSBank then. I could withdraw money to credit/debit cards but I believe there is a fee compared to $0 if withdrawing more $200 to a bank. There is a penalty (return fee) for failure so I need to be prudent.

Searching on the web for solutions about hanyu pinyin in bracket seem futile.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Holding Review on February 2009

No changes to holding. Seem like ASA has taken a huge beating as the delisting request from SGX continues. I will not buy any stock till China Life is delisted though I am tempted to buy ASA at its current prices.

Review





StockPurchase DateAnnualized ReturnBuying PriceCurrentPrice
Powerplus15-Jan-2008-35.96%0.2150.05
STI ETF*15-Jan-2008-8.93%3.472.82
Cacola17-Oct-2008-31.56%0.0950.055
STI ETF*17-Oct-200823.27%2.082.82
ASA Group28-Sep-2009-127.58%0.0550.025
STI ETF*28-Sep-20099.31%2.672.82
ChinaLife26-Jan-2010-3.35%0.170.17
STI ETF*26-Jan-20100.05%2.812.82

*STI ETF as benchmark (didn't buy just compare)

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #8

Nothing to update again as no fund available.

This week's bet


$4 Fund Carryover

$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Cash Offer: Ionics (I10)


References: SGX Delisting Document



Company Info:

Ionics EMS, Inc. is a provider of electronic manufacturing services. The Company is engaged in a range of printed circuit board (PCB) assembly specializing in surface mounting technology, flip chip on rigid boards, flex and glass assemblies, electronic sub-assemblies and full module assembly. It offers original equipment manufacturer and original design manufacturer services with product design and design support, new product introduction, industrial engineering and manufacturing system and integrated supply chain management. It has a central warehouse for third-party logistics and vendor-managed inventory control. The Company operates through four segments: computer peripherals, telecommunications, automotive and consumer electronics.

Offer Price:

$0.015

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Cash Offer: United Pulp & Paper (U09)

References: SGX Delisting Document



Company Info:

United Pulp & Paper Company Limited (UPP) is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company operates through two business segments: paper mill and recycled fiber. The paper mill segment manufactures and sells industrial-grade paper products, including test liners, corrugated medium and grey chip, and core and laminated boards. The recycled fiber segment collects and trades in waste paper products and recycled fiber. The types of waste paper include old corrugated carton, double liner kraft and old newspapers. The Company’s subsidiaries include United Paper Industries Pte Ltd, United Green-Industries Pte Ltd, UPP Investment (Asia) Pte Ltd, UPP (Asia) Pte Ltd and United Packaging Industries Sdn Bhd, among others. On July 21, 2008, the Company sold its corrugated packaging business to Tat Seng Packaging Limited.

Offer Price:

$0.1

Monday, March 1, 2010

Video by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swans


References: Watch Nassim Nicholas Taleb Video

Read from BigFatPurse about this video. For those who don't know, he is the writer of Fooled by Randomness, the Black Swan, books about probability. Black Swans refer to improbable events. There is some candid and he definitely is a skeptic of certain prediction and daring to mention certain things. In a French Polytechnic, he even mentioned that using Bell Curve to measure risks is not only silly but immoral. There is transcript of the video available too, although not well-transcripted.

Some points I like from the video


Problem of Low probability Prediction
There was this article about a chance of a finanical event happening once every 10,000 year. The point is how can someone predict something is 1 in 10,000 years when 10,000 year of finances/stock market didn't even occur? Also, low probability event occur very little so there is might be more error since you get less of it to conclude the prediction.

The rich get richer, the big get bigger?
He mention if that is true, how did Google come out of nowhere and beat some other companies. Also, why did only 75 of the S&P500 survived for that four years? He then mention, people will then add a twist to their (prediction) model that can make company go bust when they grows big.

Mention of his investment
He don't buy stock(probably meant individual stock) and got a medium risk portfolio. He is also afraid of the stock market.

Other investors
He is neutral whether Buffett is great or just lucky. He thinks there are only 2 person he is sure they are not just lucky. They are George Soros and Simons of Renaissance Technologies. I heard of Soros, but nothing of Simons or Renaissance Technologies. I should probably read up about it.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Delisting Company: Keda Communications


References: SGX Delisting Document

Another delisting company, Keda Communications, or in short KedaCom. Also with the Singapore government support of M&A, will there be more of these? It is definitely very interesting idea, which I don't think any other country has done. Although, will there be any loopholes that companies can exploit to get the 5%?

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20100223-200382.html

To encourage local companies to grow and internationalise, the 2010 Budget contains a novel Merger & Acquisition (M&A) allowance (up to 5 per cent of the value of the acquisition, capped at $5 million for all deals by a company in a year). M&A deals involving transfer of unlisted shares will also receive remission from stamp duties. The ESC recommended that local SMEs should be encouraged to grow in order to become more internationally competitive, and the M&A incentives would help achieve this.




Company Info:

Keda Communications Limited is a provider of video conferencing, video surveillance, and networking products for government agencies, organizations of public utilities, enterprises and telecommunication industries. The Company operates in three business segments: access net platform, video conferencing system and video surveillance system. The access net platform include equipment, which are used to transmit voice, data and video images, which enable voice communication to be conducted through the Internet by converting the analog signal into digital data and vice versa. The video conferencing system is designed for the government agencies, public utility companies and organizations in order to conduct meetings or training sessions, through remote access. Video surveillance system is a digital surveillance product which is primarily designed for corporate customers and government agencies in order to monitor their remote locations throughout the People’s Republic of China.

Offer Price:

$0.125, currently closed @ $0.085

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #7

Left with only $4 dollars, and got to stop betting till the $100 monthly comes in 2 more weeks. Not too concern, since I never expected it to be lucrative. To finish winning some money, it seems like it will takes some time.

This week's bet


$4 Fund Carryover

$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Thoughts on Budget 2010 - Productivity



Focus on productivity. Good or bad?


I believe that technology can increase productivity but I think I also know technology can kill jobs. Recently, French Air Traffic Controllers started 5-Day Strike due to fear of losing their jobs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/business/global/24air.html
The French controllers are protesting European Union plans to integrate air traffic control systems under an initiative called the Single European Sky. Their unions fear the changes will result in job cuts and the loss of special civil servant benefits.


It wasn't too long ago that there was the mentioned of "Cheaper, Better, Faster (CBF)".
http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2009/10/lim-swee-say-cheaper-better-faster-cbf.html
The labour movement, NTUC, will be working towards helping put on track a "Cheaper, Better, Faster (CBF)" economy in the next two years


I don't disagree that increasing productivity is the only way ahead if we wish to depend less on cheaper, better foreign labor. It is just a difficult thing for people to like changes, even if it is good for the themselves. Just a irony, if there are no criminals there won't be any jobs for police. If there aren't any viruses, there will be no money selling anti-virus. Singaporeans are so hardworking, I feel it takes a lazy person to think of the most productive way of solving a problem. Nevertheless, the goodies for Singaporeans is the increase of foreign levy.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Simple Question about Coin Tossing


Another question I stumbled while listening to the podcast, Scam School, Given a fair coin, 50% head and 50% tails. Which of the following outcome is more likely to occur than the others in 10 tosses?
a) HHHHHHHHHH
b) HTHTHTHTHT
c) HHTHTTHTTH


The Answer


All equally likely. Only if the question was about what is the chance to get 10 heads, vs 5 heads and 5 tails, then the answer will be different.

Haven't been getting any stock since I am still locked in with China Lifestyle delisting.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #6

Left with only $84 dollars, but continuing with the system.

This week's bet


$84 Fund Carryover


TAMPINES vs SAF FC, Away 2.15, 8 concurrent bets
$10,
$10,
$10,
$10,
$20,
$20,
$20, (not enough fund)
$80, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Reward-based education. Good or Bad?


References: Forum Repost of News

Just read newspaper about students getting reward with the school bus for those who are punctual. On first thought, I thought it was a good idea, that they is reward instead of using punishment to encourage students to be punctual. However, my thoughts is that Singaporeans will be taught to only do things for rewards or incentives. I believe this culture of doing things based on rewards is deeply rooted into the Singapore system and might not be good for certain tasks.

For example, how can you encourage people to do volunteer works? People will probably stop doing volunteer work if there aren't any incentives. The government do provide incentives by giving double tax deduction for donations. When eating out, few people will help clear their own mess they made on the table, because there is no incentives. Few people will recycle or even separate their trash because there is no incentives. Few people will give up their seats on public transport for people who need it more because there is no incentives. Just a thought.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Motley Fool podcast


References:
http://www.fool.com/ (name looks stupid but genuine investing site)
Amazon Book "How We Decide"

Was listening to the podcast of Motley Fool, it focus on US market but I still listen it for mostly news and their views on them. This week, there were interviewing a book writer for "How We Decide" and interesting he mentions there are 2 broad decisions, math problems and mysteries. The first step to making the right decision, then, is accurately diagnosing the problem and figuring out which brain system to rely on. Should we trust our intuition or calculate the probabilities? We always need to be thinking about how we think.

More Thoughts


In the end, they asked what do he invest in and he invests in low-cost index fund. I like that idea that there are math problems which you can logically calculate and decide and mysteries which are mostly intuition. Currently, I prefer to look for math problems in investing, till I can trust my intuition. Judging from my mistakes in Cacola, I need at additional 50% Margin of Safety, in addition to the 20% I had given myself then. Sentimental or technical investing isn't for me yet till I got more capital to generate a worthy returns for the effort put in.