Thursday, January 28, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #3

3rd betting week and the fund of $100 is almost depleted. Can only support 3 concurrent bet this week and have to put one on hold. As usual, I will bet only only 1 match to save time. If it is for fun or "diversification", probably a better idea to bet on several games.

This week's bet


Please note I don't invest real money in this because I believe the returns will be abysmal. I just wish to know the kind of returns this system can achieve.
$56.5 Fund Carryover
$10, ALGERIA vs EGYPT, Away 2.05
$20, ALGERIA vs EGYPT, Away 2.05
$20, ALGERIA vs EGYPT, Away 2.05
$20, ALGERIA vs EGYPT, Away 2.05 (cannot betting till to insufficient fund)

$6.5 Fund Left (from original $100)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Bought ChinaLife (E69)

Reference: SGX - JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT-PROPOSED VOLUNTARY DELISTING OF CHINA LIFESTYLE FOOD AND BEVERAGES GROUP LIMITED (Dec 9th, 2009)

Seem to forgot to blog about China Lifestyle & Beverage but I looked for an alternative to China Hongguo which was hard to get. I bought 100,000 of ChinaLife @ 0.17 and is considering to accumulate more of it.

Cash Offer Company: Top Global Ltd (519)



Reference: SGX - Mandatory Unconditional Cash Offer for Top Global Limited

Company Info:

Top Global Limited is principally engaged in general upgrading and building construction activities. It operates in three divisions: property development and investment, which is engaged in the development of properties; upgrading and building, which is engaged in general upgrading, roofing, and building construction activities, and property and facility management, which is engaged in leasing and management of properties. Its major subsidiaries include Top Global Enterprises Pte Ltd, TG China Pte Ltd, Raintree Cove Pte Ltd, Top Global Properties Pte Ltd, Top Global Properties (Kovan) Pte Ltd, Winsland Resources Incorporated, Top Global China Pte Ltd, and Top Global (M) Sdn Bhd.

Currently on trading halt @ 0.02, the offer is only $0.012. Also, interesting, there is a warrant Top Global W130612 @ 0.015.

Proft Margin

There is no profit margin to speak of since it is below the current stock price. However, in case it drops to a profitable range like many cash offer company.

Selling @ Offer Price of $0.12
Buying 900 lots @ 0.01 = 19.16%
Buying 1800 lots @ 0.005 = 138.32%

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

What to do if you thinks stock will be stagnant?


Was reading Sunday Times and the section of an interview with a person financial lifestyle. The person mentioned he don't buy individual stocks and rather buy options. I do agree that trading options forces you think very carefully what you are buying. I am just not sure if the risk of using leveraged tools and something I don't know is a good idea. Risks are relative to a person own knowledge and experience. What is high risk to one, might be low risk to another.

Nevertheless, I tried to recall and read about something I stumbled upon. The strategy is called covered call which is profitable even when the stock price is stagnant. However, even after further reading, I still find it too complicated for my liking. I will probably need to read more to feel comfortable about it.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Delisting Company: China Hongguo (H14)



SGX - Cash Offer by Info Giant Investments for Hongguo

Hongguo International Holdings Limited (Hongguo) is an investment holding company. It is a specialized designer, producer and retailer of fashion footwear. It owns two ladies fashion footwear labels: C.Banner and E.Blan. Hongguo is also distributor of Naturalizer, ladies fashion footwear brand in the United States, as well as Florsheim, the United States label for man’s footwear. The Company is primarily engaged in two business segments: manufacturer and retailer of branded fashion footwear and apparel, and contract manufacturing of footwear.

I missed this announcement but happen to see it on another blog. The rationale was the usual with several others, greater management flexibility. Somehow being listed is not efficient to some companies, although it is can be an excuse to other reasons. Yet on the other hands, some companies are getting listed on other exchange without issues.

Proft Margin


Selling @ Offer Price of $0.439(although should be 0.440)
Buying 21 lots @ 0.43 = 1.38%
Buying 21 lots @ 0.435 = 0.21%

I tried to queue 40 lots @ 0.43 which probably won't work.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Returns from Iconic Holding

Earn $446.94 with Iconic Holdings after accepting the cash offer. No clue where to go next now.

Review




StockPurchase DateAnnualized ReturnBuying PriceSelling Price
Iconic Holding
27-Oct-200911.39%0.1650.17
Iconic Holding
3-Dec-200920.07%0.1650.17


I bought at 2 different timing so there are 2 rows. I didn't include the benchmark of STI ETF for clarity but I didn't beat it again. The good thing is at least I was staying invested and hit my first $1,000 realized profit from investing.

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #2

Made some mistake, the minimum bets for Singapore Pools soccer is $5, so I am going to x5 for everything. Therefore, it will be $100 invested/gambled monthly, not using real money, because I suspect the returns will be abysmal.

Also, I decided to focus only on 1 game instead although for a bettor it might be more "chances" of winning. For, a portfolio manager might consider this as not diversified and putting all the eggs in 1 basket. Regardless, I am just testing the system returns and checking 1 result is much faster. However, there will still be concurrent bets.

$80 Fund Carryover (x5 from last week)
After last week results, add $11.5(x5, payoff 2.3) for Lazio Home Win.

$5, CENTRAL COAST vs GOLD COAST UTD, Away 2.05 (Reset after win)
$10, CENTRAL COAST vs GOLD COAST UTD, Away 2.05 (x2)
$10, CENTRAL COAST vs GOLD COAST UTD, Away 2.05 (x2)
$10, CENTRAL COAST vs GOLD COAST UTD, Away 2.05 (x2)

$56.5 Fund Left (from original $100)

EDIT: minor mistake should be away not home

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Rejection of offer from YTL CEMENT

YTL offer to purchase Jurong Cement was rejected by the current majority shareholder. Logically, the prices should fall back to the 2.1 cash offer price. However, this probably means that Holcoim, the current major shareholder, believe it can unlock more value from the company than the offer price by YTL. It can also be for competitive reasons, since Holcoim deals with cement too, but I have no idea about the industry.
References
SGX - REJECTION OF OFFER TO PURCHASE CERTAIN ASSETS BY YTL CEMENT SINGAPORE PTE LTD

Monday, January 18, 2010

Rant on Passwords

While waiting for my cheque after accepting the Iconic Holding for almost a week, I tried to check my UOB account just in case the money was deposited in there instead of my POSB one. Then, I realized I forgotten both my username and password. I tried a few combination and got my login disabled. Reseting the password on the ATM wasn't difficult but when I relogin, I had to figure another password with some rules, like it cannot contain the same character twice and also I cannot reuse my old passwords. I wondered if someone can just do the same on other people account with their username and irritated them, having to come up with lots of password.

Honestly, I wonder how others can remember some many username/passwords in their life. There are
* Singpass
* POSB
* National Library Card
* UOB
* BBDC
* School account
* couple of Gmails,
* couple of Yahoos,
* Live/Hotmail
* Skype
* Facebook
* Twitter
* POEMS
* various websites that uses their own login

Luckily, SingPass settled most of the government password like ns.sg, CPF, tax, etc. Of course, there are password manager but I don't like the idea of a central point since once it is compromised, all your passwords are exposed. You can also write down password somewhere, or even stick them on your screen. I think that is even worse in security. I don't think there is a perfect solution to this, so I just to try very hard to remember password or come up with some kind of system to recall passwords.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

YTL Cement offers S$50m to buy Jurong Cement assets‎

Just saw the announcement of YTL Cement for Jurong Cement on the SGX annoucement. A quick search found the news yesterday on CNA already. Holcim, the current takeover company, controls about 56% of Jurong Cement, while YTL Cement Singapore has a 22% stake, based on TheStar Malaysia News. YTL offer is S$50m compared to Holcim $11m and they plan to keep the company listed.

Currently, Business Times understands that JCL's free float shares stand at about 11 per cent of issued stock.

Today, Jurong Cement weighted average price is 2.1754. I really wonder how the prices will be tomorrow, given only 11% free float. I am not sure about the procedure when a unconditional voluntary offer with another takeover offer, especially when one have a majority stake in the company. I will track eagerly how it proceed from here.

The betting system to win even in a unfair game with unlimited capital #1

I must emphasis the unlimited capital again before I start. Without unlimited capital, this strategy may fail and ends up in huge losses.

A few requirements are needed for the system to work.
a) The game must have a payoff of at >= 2, meaning if u bet $1, you should get at least $2 if you win,
b) The game let you bet without limit, eg. not restricted to xxx dollars,
c) unlimited capital.

I don't gamble but just find this system very interesting and wonder if there are practical uses of it.

The system

It is called Martingale betting system. Basically, you just need to double your initial bet each time you lost. When you win, you reset back to an initial bet. For example,

$1 bet on head. LOSE!
$2 bet on head. LOSE!
$4 bet on head. WIN! (3rd bet)
=> Won $8 and bet $7. Total winning is $1, 1/7 = 14%

Logically, it does seems to work and you will always win eventually. Why don't everyone uses the system then? It requires unlimited capital and provides negative progression returns. The longer you are betting, the worse are your returns when you win. You always win $1 only. For example,

$1 bet on head. LOSE!
$2 bet on head. LOSE!
....
$16,384 bet on head. WIN! (15th bet)
=> Won $32,768 and bet $$32767. Total winning is $1, 1/32,767 = 0.000030518509476%

The returns are terrible and in additional, you had already bet 32767 times your initial bet size. If your initial bet was 1,000, it will already been $32 millions betted just for a $1 winning. Therefore, casinos don't need to care about people using this since it is impractical.

Experiment
Just for fun, I wish to try and find a use of the system. In 4D, the system will fail terribly since the odds are terrible and you will need lots of money to sustain the high number of bets. Instead, I wish to try the system on football betting.

The goal is simple, to win as soon as possible for higher margins and less use of capital. How to predict a soccer game? I don't plan to. I am just going to let Singapore Pools predict and find the games at least payout of 2 and closest to the payout of 2.

For responsible gambling, I am assuming a regular bet amount of $20 each month. I will look at the odds Thursday weekly and choose the bets. If only 1 bet is used weekly, the maximum winning is only $4 a month, which probably will not happen either. Therefore, I plan to run concurrent bets with initial bet $1 to maximize the use of capital. I am not using real money.

Some more rules, I will only bet win, lose or draw. It is more convenience because I can just glance the Singapore Pools odds at 1 page. I will not have 2 bets on the same game. I don't think it will be good since it will means 1 of them will definitely be wrong. My expectation is that the returns of the bets will be abysmal but I wish to try it to know more.

$20 Monthly Fund

Bet $1 in the following:
ADELAIDE vs CENTRAL COAST, Home 2.1
MALI vs ALGERIA, Home 2.2
LAZIO vs PALERMO, Home 2.3
BLACKBURN vs ASTON VILLA, Home 3.1

$16 Fund Left

Monday, January 11, 2010

Given a unfair game, can you find a way to always win money?


Given a coin tossing game which you need to bet $1 to participate and you win $2 if you guess correctly and lose everything if u guess wrongly. Is there any way to beat the system and win some money given you got unlimited money?

There is a system that make money eventually even if the game was unfair and not in your favor, for example, the 4D which you pick 4 numbers and the payout is less than your chances of winning. It should be obvious that Singapore Pools is not a charity that gives you money. However, as said it requires unlimited capital.

I hate gambling but was interested to find that such a system exists. Will reveal the system in future if people are interested.

Meanwhile, Iconic Holding is under trading halt, probably the result of the EGM is out. Should probably have no problems, and I have to look to invest my money somewhere else again, but most delisting companies have already reached their offer price.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Accepted Iconic Holding cash offer

I decided to accept the cash offer instead of trying to sell on the open market. I believe I will not get the cheque till the offer become unconditional which is probably after the EGM on 11 Jan.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Prediction for 2010


Warning: The following prediction are just for fun purposes. No analysis or much effort have been researched into any of them.


STI to go up by 5% to 3,040 at the end of the year. Just using the the upper end of PM prediction of GDP and relating to the stock market hopefully.

Ringgit to strengthen against SingDollar which is currently 2.4 Just for fun, they are supposed to be pegged.

Fiber optics plan in Singapore will be useless to most home owners. Don't think anyone found a good use of bandwidth except for illegal contents.

Significant research advances of some crops. Perhaps there will be a finding of some genes that lead to better harvests or resistance to the climate changes.

Google change their looks to cater for real-time search. I believe they had made some progress for the Tiger Woods news. But I think it might need more drastic changes.