Friday, February 26, 2010

Delisting Company: Keda Communications


References: SGX Delisting Document

Another delisting company, Keda Communications, or in short KedaCom. Also with the Singapore government support of M&A, will there be more of these? It is definitely very interesting idea, which I don't think any other country has done. Although, will there be any loopholes that companies can exploit to get the 5%?

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20100223-200382.html

To encourage local companies to grow and internationalise, the 2010 Budget contains a novel Merger & Acquisition (M&A) allowance (up to 5 per cent of the value of the acquisition, capped at $5 million for all deals by a company in a year). M&A deals involving transfer of unlisted shares will also receive remission from stamp duties. The ESC recommended that local SMEs should be encouraged to grow in order to become more internationally competitive, and the M&A incentives would help achieve this.




Company Info:

Keda Communications Limited is a provider of video conferencing, video surveillance, and networking products for government agencies, organizations of public utilities, enterprises and telecommunication industries. The Company operates in three business segments: access net platform, video conferencing system and video surveillance system. The access net platform include equipment, which are used to transmit voice, data and video images, which enable voice communication to be conducted through the Internet by converting the analog signal into digital data and vice versa. The video conferencing system is designed for the government agencies, public utility companies and organizations in order to conduct meetings or training sessions, through remote access. Video surveillance system is a digital surveillance product which is primarily designed for corporate customers and government agencies in order to monitor their remote locations throughout the People’s Republic of China.

Offer Price:

$0.125, currently closed @ $0.085

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #7

Left with only $4 dollars, and got to stop betting till the $100 monthly comes in 2 more weeks. Not too concern, since I never expected it to be lucrative. To finish winning some money, it seems like it will takes some time.

This week's bet


$4 Fund Carryover

$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$20, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$40, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Thoughts on Budget 2010 - Productivity



Focus on productivity. Good or bad?


I believe that technology can increase productivity but I think I also know technology can kill jobs. Recently, French Air Traffic Controllers started 5-Day Strike due to fear of losing their jobs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/business/global/24air.html
The French controllers are protesting European Union plans to integrate air traffic control systems under an initiative called the Single European Sky. Their unions fear the changes will result in job cuts and the loss of special civil servant benefits.


It wasn't too long ago that there was the mentioned of "Cheaper, Better, Faster (CBF)".
http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2009/10/lim-swee-say-cheaper-better-faster-cbf.html
The labour movement, NTUC, will be working towards helping put on track a "Cheaper, Better, Faster (CBF)" economy in the next two years


I don't disagree that increasing productivity is the only way ahead if we wish to depend less on cheaper, better foreign labor. It is just a difficult thing for people to like changes, even if it is good for the themselves. Just a irony, if there are no criminals there won't be any jobs for police. If there aren't any viruses, there will be no money selling anti-virus. Singaporeans are so hardworking, I feel it takes a lazy person to think of the most productive way of solving a problem. Nevertheless, the goodies for Singaporeans is the increase of foreign levy.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Simple Question about Coin Tossing


Another question I stumbled while listening to the podcast, Scam School, Given a fair coin, 50% head and 50% tails. Which of the following outcome is more likely to occur than the others in 10 tosses?
a) HHHHHHHHHH
b) HTHTHTHTHT
c) HHTHTTHTTH


The Answer


All equally likely. Only if the question was about what is the chance to get 10 heads, vs 5 heads and 5 tails, then the answer will be different.

Haven't been getting any stock since I am still locked in with China Lifestyle delisting.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #6

Left with only $84 dollars, but continuing with the system.

This week's bet


$84 Fund Carryover


TAMPINES vs SAF FC, Away 2.15, 8 concurrent bets
$10,
$10,
$10,
$10,
$20,
$20,
$20, (not enough fund)
$80, (not enough fund)

$4 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Reward-based education. Good or Bad?


References: Forum Repost of News

Just read newspaper about students getting reward with the school bus for those who are punctual. On first thought, I thought it was a good idea, that they is reward instead of using punishment to encourage students to be punctual. However, my thoughts is that Singaporeans will be taught to only do things for rewards or incentives. I believe this culture of doing things based on rewards is deeply rooted into the Singapore system and might not be good for certain tasks.

For example, how can you encourage people to do volunteer works? People will probably stop doing volunteer work if there aren't any incentives. The government do provide incentives by giving double tax deduction for donations. When eating out, few people will help clear their own mess they made on the table, because there is no incentives. Few people will recycle or even separate their trash because there is no incentives. Few people will give up their seats on public transport for people who need it more because there is no incentives. Just a thought.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Motley Fool podcast


References:
http://www.fool.com/ (name looks stupid but genuine investing site)
Amazon Book "How We Decide"

Was listening to the podcast of Motley Fool, it focus on US market but I still listen it for mostly news and their views on them. This week, there were interviewing a book writer for "How We Decide" and interesting he mentions there are 2 broad decisions, math problems and mysteries. The first step to making the right decision, then, is accurately diagnosing the problem and figuring out which brain system to rely on. Should we trust our intuition or calculate the probabilities? We always need to be thinking about how we think.

More Thoughts


In the end, they asked what do he invest in and he invests in low-cost index fund. I like that idea that there are math problems which you can logically calculate and decide and mysteries which are mostly intuition. Currently, I prefer to look for math problems in investing, till I can trust my intuition. Judging from my mistakes in Cacola, I need at additional 50% Margin of Safety, in addition to the 20% I had given myself then. Sentimental or technical investing isn't for me yet till I got more capital to generate a worthy returns for the effort put in.

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #5

1 month has passed since I used the system and the result is $76 with the initial $100 there the returns are -26% in a month. Another $100(fake money) will be added as 1 month has passed.

There are ways to improve the returns of this fund by
a) guessing better (i don't predict currently, just choose the smallest odds that is >= 2)
b) better utilize the capital (using 8 concurrent bets since added another $100/month, not sure if there is a more optimal way to determine the # of bets)

The best case for the fund is guessing correct all the time, which is all 4 weekly bets resulting in 8 concurrent bets x 4 times a month x $5 profit = $160 for the $200 fund. The worst case is nothing is right, resulting in complete lost in the 3rd week and having to wait for fund next month.
$40, 8x$5 1st week
$80, 8x$10 2nd week
$80, 4x$20 3rd week

This week's bet


Remember the fund only bet in odds >= 2 and double every previous bet that didn't win. There are concurrent bets to better make use of the $100 monthly fund. There are more matches on Friday, but this system should work regardless.

$74 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

Decide to add 4 more concurrent bets, totaling to 8 bets
The bets are kept separate for easier management but betting on the single game.
This week odds seem rather higher since I cannot find a odds close to 2.

RACING vs ATLETICO MADRID, Away 3.15 with the 8 bet amount
$5,
$5,
$5,
$5,
$10,
$10,
$10,
$40,

$84 Fund Left (from $200 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Monday, February 8, 2010

Delisting Company: Texchem (AI1)


References: SGX - Delist Info


Company Info:

Texchem-Pack Holdings (S) Ltd. (Texchem-Pack) is a packaging solutions provider. It is engaged in the manufacture and sale of thermoformed packaging products, precision injection moulded products, extruded plastic sheets, shipping rails, expanded polystyrene products, heavy-duty triple wall corrugated carton products, embossed carrier tapes and polymer compounds, design, manufacture and sale of flexo photo-polymer and flexographic printing plates, and provision of consulting services. It provides integrated manufacturing services ranging from design and product development to prototyping and mould fabrication, to cater for the different needs of its customers. Its packaging products are manufactured utilising four main processes: thermoforming, precision injection moulding, profile extrusion and expanded polystyrene moulding.

Delisting Info
Reasons for offer is low trading liquidity, and additional cost of mainatin separate listing. They expect the Exit Offer to be complete by 2nd Quarter 2010.

Profit Margin
Selling @ Offer Price of $0.135
Buying 70 lots @ 0.130 = 3.12%
Buying 80 lots @ 0.125 = 7.25%

Forex with CMC and MetaTrader


http://www.cmcmarkets.com.sg/en/content/index.jsp



http://www.metaquotes.net/


Was chatting with a friend that do forex and ask him about the platforms he used. He mention that MetaTrader got a better spread than CMC. I tried MetaTrader since it was free with a demo account and I was given a username and password.

53719:ua0heyj
5kkmqwy(read only password)

Another set of username and password to remember? How will anyone remember all their passwords. Regardless, I got in and 5 minutes in and I saw charts that kept updating and I know it isn't right for me. I don't want to get involved in technical charts or active trading. Thinking there is an explanation or pattern in something very sentiment-driven by human nature just don't seem correct for me, at least at this stage of life.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #4

At last, a win and the fund is in positive returns. It is nice to know the fund will be always win eventually if you got enough money to continue. The overall profit if I stop now is $9 for the $100 initial fund 3 weeks ago. Going to continue this for a couple more months to decide if it is worthwhile to keep tracking. I really think this fund will generate terrible returns eventually so I hope to be proven wrong.

This week's bet


Remember the fund only bet in odds >= 2 and double every previous bet that didn't win. There are concurrent bets to better make use of the $100 monthly fund. There are more matches on Friday, but this system should work regardless.

$6.5 Fund Carryover
ALGERIA vs EGYPT, Away 2.05, $50 * 2.05 = $102.5

$5, GOMBAK vs TAMPINES, Home 2.2
$5, GOMBAK vs TAMPINES, Home 2.2
$5, GOMBAK vs TAMPINES, Home 2.2
$20, GOMBAK vs TAMPINES, Home 2.2 (didn't bet last week due to insufficient fund)

$74 Fund Left (from original $100)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Delisting Company: China Video(previously Yaan) (5GK)


References: http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/AnnouncementToday/4057FC88DD6E2532482576BE00133AA9?opendocument

Yaan Security Technology Limited is a technology-based company, which designs, develops and markets closed-circuit television (CCTV) security and surveillance products and accessories. Its range of CCTV products includes high speed dome cameras, Internet protocol (IP)-based speed dome cameras CCTV accessories, such as housing, pan/tilt modules, control keyboards and network video servers. These products have been deployed in tourist attractions and historic sites around China, such as Tiananmen Square, Summer Palace, Temple of Heaven and Beijing Fragrant Hill. Other projects include Shanghai Outer Ring Road, Beijing Olympic hotel, Shenzhen Airport, Qingdao Liuting Airport and Railway Stations in Shanghai and Beijing.

Delisting Info


Reasons for offer is low trading liquidity, and working to be a PRC listing

Profit Margin
Selling @ Offer Price of $0.265
Buying 34 lots @ 0.260 = 1.21%
Buying 35 lots @ 0.255 = 3.20%

Monday, February 1, 2010

Holding Review on January 2009

Just the addition 100 lots of ChinaLife. I am still reluctant to invest in businesses. Will probably accumulate more of ChinaLife.

Review





StockPurchase DateAnnualized ReturnBuying PriceCurrentPrice
Powerplus15-Jan-2008-36.37%0.2150.055
STI ETF*15-Jan-2008-9.59%3.472.8
Cacola17-Oct-2008-33.70%0.0950.055
STI ETF*17-Oct-200824.12%2.082.8
ASA Group28-Sep-200921.59%0.0550.06
STI ETF*28-Sep-20099.54%2.672.8
ChinaLife26-Jan-2010-21.25%0.170.17
STI ETF*26-Jan-2010-42.82%2.812.8

*STI ETF as benchmark (didn't buy just compare)

Creditability of Donation


I don't like to donate for several reasons. One reason is I really wonder how many percent of the donation really go to those in need. Somehow today, when those usual ice-cream seller kids arrive at my door, I gave $14 for the Magnolia 1 litre ice-cream. It was like those ice-cream peddlers used to wrap between breads. Definitely over-priced, but my concern is whether he lied. He spoke of the need of fund for his mother treatment. I don't believe him 100% but he hit my soft spot. Perhaps it was the recent Haiti event.


In the future, I really hope to help those in need rather than donate money. I also believe in sustainable charity rather than one based on donation. One of my goal is an orphanage since I think every child should at least have an equal education at least to the secondary school. Singapore seems support that already, so probably might be in poorer countries elsewhere.

Back to the ice-cream, I was thinking, perhaps loansharks should hire runners to sell ice-creams while doing their tasks. This will "legalise" their business while they can also maximize the use of their runners. Who knows, perhaps they already started that?