Friday, April 23, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #14

Getting closer to finishing all the positions for assessing the ROI. A quick calculation makes me wonder if I miscalculated somewhere because the possible return is better than I expect.

The worst case is you run out of capital to fund the bets and you kept losing bets. It can happen since bets double each time you lose and grows exponentially. With the current largest bet position of $160, another 3 wrong bets will result in $160 * 2 * 2 *2 = $1,280 which is 12 times the $100 monthly fund.

The best case is all bets are correct from this stage. Very unlikely. If the odds represent probability it is the probably of tossing 4 heads in a row. 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0625 or 6.25%. If it does happen, the final result should be fund available + bets positions remaining = 6 + 168 + 40 + 40 + 160 + 160 = $574 over the $400 invested. Something must be wrong but I delay the review till the positions are fully closed.

This week's bet

The next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May. Betting on the smaller $40 positions instead of 1 $160 just for fun. Even if the 2 bets lost, there can at least be 1 more bet at least next month.

$ 6 Fund Carryover
$168 Winnings from Last Week

$40, ETOILE FC vs SAF FC, Away 2.05
$40, MAINZ vs E FRANKFURT, Home 2.05
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$94 Fund Left (from $400 invested)


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