Monday, May 24, 2010

Win a iPad from Citibank



From now till 30 Jun 2010, you just need to refer 10 friends to sign up for a Citibank Credit Card or Citibank Ready Credit and you'll be rewarded with the most exclusive gifts this season! Find out more details here











Terms and Conditions

1. Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit customers ("Eligible Customers") who introduce contacts via Citibank's website at citibank.com.sg in accordance with these terms and conditions are eligible to participate in the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special (the "Promotion").
2. Subject to these terms and conditions, Eligible Customers will receive a redemption letter with the redemption details of the promotional gift he/she is entitled to. The Apple iPad or Sony Vaio Netbook “10.1” or Nintendo Wii or Sony PS3 or TANGS voucher will hereafter be referred to as ("Promotional gift")
3. An Eligible Customer will only receive his/her redemption letter if the contacts he/she introduced (i) establish his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit via Citibank's website, (ii) become Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit customers and (iii) gives his/her consent to Citibank to inform the Eligible Customer of the establishment of his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account.
4. If more than one Eligible Customer introduces the same contact and a Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account is subsequently opened, the first Eligible Customer who sent in the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Referral Form will be entitled to the Promotional gift.
5. Regardless of the number of Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit accounts applied for by a contact, the Eligible Customer will only be deemed as having made one (1) successful referral.
6. Subject to each of the contacts giving his/her consent to inform the Eligible Customer as stated in clause 3 above, the redemption letter will be sent to the Eligible Customer to his/her last known mailing address within two (2) months from the promotion end date.
7. Eligible Customers will not be entitled to receive the Promotional gift if the contact is:
(a) an existing Citibank Credit Card / Ready Credit customer, or
(b) an existing Citibank Credit Card customer who is upgrading his/her Citibank Credit Card, or
(c) a person who has closed off his/her Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit account within the last six (6) months.
8. There is no limit to the number of contacts that an Eligible Customer can introduce.
9. The Promotional gift is subject to availability and is offered on a first-come-first served basis. Citibank reserves the right to replace the Promotional gift with items of similar value at its discretion without notice.
10. The Promotional gift is not refundable or exchangeable for cash or other reward items from Citibank.
11. Citibank is not supplier of the products and/or services redeemed/purchased using the TANGS shopping vouchers and will not accept any liability in relation thereto.
12. Citibank's decision on all matters relating to the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special, including without limitation on the time of receipt of Citibank Member-Get-Member Referral Forms by Citibank is final.
13. Citibank reserves the right to vary, delete or add to any of these terms and conditions from time to time at its discretion. These terms and conditions prevail over the contents of any brochure or other promotional material advertising the Citibank Credit Card/Citibank Ready Credit Member-Get-Member Special.
14. "Citibank" means Citibank Singapore Limited.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #17

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 11th June.

$ 14 Fund Carryover
$100 Monthly Funding

$80, OMIYA ARDIJA vs S HIROSHIMA, Away 2.1
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$34 Fund Left (from $500 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Detailed Analysis about Singapore $5m Toto

Winning the $5m Toto is probably in most people mind and these are some simple analysis to understand the game better. I will never buy TOTO or 4D, knowing how profitable they are to Singapore Pools. Unless it isn't a losing game, which is impossible since their goal is to make money "responsibly".

Odds of winning
The odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 8,145,060. The calculation is done by having

45*44*43*42*41*40 / (6*5*4*3*2*1)

Logically, this means we have to buy 8 million tickets @ $0.5 before we win the top prize.
This equates to $4,072,530 million.

How long to win a top prize
Given 2 draws a week, and the need of 8 million tickets to win a top prize. It will take a buyer who gets a ticket, 4 million weeks = 1 millions months = 84,844 years. To hopefully win a top prize within 50 years , a person needs to buy 1,696 tickets every draw.

Tax if you win
Zero, as stated in IRAS. There seems to be a 3% withholding tax for non-Singapore resident, but not confirmed.

Claiming prize
You have 180 days from the date of the draw to claim your prize before your winning ticket becomes invalid. If you win above $5,000, you need to collect your cheque at Singapore Pools main branch in PoMo. Not sure if Singapore Pools reduce the amount if lump sum cheque is taken. Based on wikipedia lottery, "it is not uncommon to find that a ticket for a major lottery is worth less than one third of its purchase price". This can be a important factor since 1/3 will means alot.

Likely number of tickets sold
Based on the last 13 draws, there are 13 winners for the top prize. This indicates an average of 1 winner every draw. Based on assumption, there are probably 8 million tickets sold every draw to generate a winner every draw, ignoring the increased probability of buyers when prize money increases.


Common Mistake
Based on the law of large number, given that the draw is conducted fairly, the occurrence of each numbers should be evenly spread. This leads to many different theories where people buy the least occurring numbers based on previous draws. The mistake is that the previous draws are independent from the next draw. Therefore, most analysis based on previous draws are groundless and ineffective in prediction.


Singapore Pools
The worst case for Singapore Pools is everyone buys an unique set of numbers. Because their prize money is fixed, this result in the least revenue and loss based on the next $5m draw. However, the buying of unique set of numbers is impossible since everyone just buy on their own and the popularity of certain "lucky" numbers. The best case for buyers are pooling as much money as possible to buy totally different sets of numbers.

Previous newsletters by Singapore Pools
Singapore Pools did release some information about previous winners in the newsletter that is stopped already. Starting from 2004, you can go through the newsletters online
http://www.singaporepools.com.sg/jsp/lottery/winning_times_012004.jsp

Newsletter summary
1st Issue 2004
There are 2 winners. A mother bought for same set of numbers 10 years and won $1.4 million after it is shared with 2 winners. The 2nd winner is a constructor worker from India.

2nd Issue 2004
A grandmother bought a System Roll entry with two numbers derived from her handphone number, and two from the hospital ward numbers where two of her grandchildren were born. The fifth was her personal favourite number, winning $0.68 million.

In another draw, with 2 winners. A 50-year-old just bought on instinct, collecting $1.3m.

For the next draw, the Indonesian Chinese winner is having a shopping trip from Batam to Singapore.

1st Issue in 2005
This is the first issue where there are names and photos taken for winners. Mr Wu Xiaohu won $2.84m for the first prize. The winners also wrote about their though winning the prizes in this issue.

2nd Isuse in 2005 (8 winners)
Hongbao draw
Gender: 7 males 1 female
Age: Youngest 28, oldest 66. Half are in early 40s.
Family: 6 married
"Investment": None spent more than $100, the least spent $8
Gains: Most intend to share with family and children education

Amount of winners:
>200k winners in each TOTO Hongbao Draw
>100k when prize is above $2m,
20k on typical draw

3rd Issue in 2005
From Jan to Jun 2005
- Numbers of TOTO and Singapore Sweep millionaries : 22
- Total prize payout: $165,765,791
- Total number of winning shares for TOTO: 1,698,755

2nd Issue in 2006
Mention of Singapore Pools being part of World Lottery Association (WLA). An international organization of 136 lotteries from 74 countries. They combined annual revenue in excess of US$120 billion.

1st Issue in 2008
Last Issue found on the web.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Weekly soccer betting with Martingale system #16

No fund available till next monthly fund.

This week's bet
The next $100 monthly fund @ 14th May.

$14 Fund Carryover

$80, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)
$160, (not enough fund)

$14 Fund Left (from $400 invested)

References:

  1. Singapore Pools odds