Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Detailed Analysis about Singapore $5m Toto

Winning the $5m Toto is probably in most people mind and these are some simple analysis to understand the game better. I will never buy TOTO or 4D, knowing how profitable they are to Singapore Pools. Unless it isn't a losing game, which is impossible since their goal is to make money "responsibly".

Odds of winning
The odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 8,145,060. The calculation is done by having

45*44*43*42*41*40 / (6*5*4*3*2*1)

Logically, this means we have to buy 8 million tickets @ $0.5 before we win the top prize.
This equates to $4,072,530 million.

How long to win a top prize
Given 2 draws a week, and the need of 8 million tickets to win a top prize. It will take a buyer who gets a ticket, 4 million weeks = 1 millions months = 84,844 years. To hopefully win a top prize within 50 years , a person needs to buy 1,696 tickets every draw.

Tax if you win
Zero, as stated in IRAS. There seems to be a 3% withholding tax for non-Singapore resident, but not confirmed.

Claiming prize
You have 180 days from the date of the draw to claim your prize before your winning ticket becomes invalid. If you win above $5,000, you need to collect your cheque at Singapore Pools main branch in PoMo. Not sure if Singapore Pools reduce the amount if lump sum cheque is taken. Based on wikipedia lottery, "it is not uncommon to find that a ticket for a major lottery is worth less than one third of its purchase price". This can be a important factor since 1/3 will means alot.

Likely number of tickets sold
Based on the last 13 draws, there are 13 winners for the top prize. This indicates an average of 1 winner every draw. Based on assumption, there are probably 8 million tickets sold every draw to generate a winner every draw, ignoring the increased probability of buyers when prize money increases.


Common Mistake
Based on the law of large number, given that the draw is conducted fairly, the occurrence of each numbers should be evenly spread. This leads to many different theories where people buy the least occurring numbers based on previous draws. The mistake is that the previous draws are independent from the next draw. Therefore, most analysis based on previous draws are groundless and ineffective in prediction.


Singapore Pools
The worst case for Singapore Pools is everyone buys an unique set of numbers. Because their prize money is fixed, this result in the least revenue and loss based on the next $5m draw. However, the buying of unique set of numbers is impossible since everyone just buy on their own and the popularity of certain "lucky" numbers. The best case for buyers are pooling as much money as possible to buy totally different sets of numbers.

Previous newsletters by Singapore Pools
Singapore Pools did release some information about previous winners in the newsletter that is stopped already. Starting from 2004, you can go through the newsletters online
http://www.singaporepools.com.sg/jsp/lottery/winning_times_012004.jsp

Newsletter summary
1st Issue 2004
There are 2 winners. A mother bought for same set of numbers 10 years and won $1.4 million after it is shared with 2 winners. The 2nd winner is a constructor worker from India.

2nd Issue 2004
A grandmother bought a System Roll entry with two numbers derived from her handphone number, and two from the hospital ward numbers where two of her grandchildren were born. The fifth was her personal favourite number, winning $0.68 million.

In another draw, with 2 winners. A 50-year-old just bought on instinct, collecting $1.3m.

For the next draw, the Indonesian Chinese winner is having a shopping trip from Batam to Singapore.

1st Issue in 2005
This is the first issue where there are names and photos taken for winners. Mr Wu Xiaohu won $2.84m for the first prize. The winners also wrote about their though winning the prizes in this issue.

2nd Isuse in 2005 (8 winners)
Hongbao draw
Gender: 7 males 1 female
Age: Youngest 28, oldest 66. Half are in early 40s.
Family: 6 married
"Investment": None spent more than $100, the least spent $8
Gains: Most intend to share with family and children education

Amount of winners:
>200k winners in each TOTO Hongbao Draw
>100k when prize is above $2m,
20k on typical draw

3rd Issue in 2005
From Jan to Jun 2005
- Numbers of TOTO and Singapore Sweep millionaries : 22
- Total prize payout: $165,765,791
- Total number of winning shares for TOTO: 1,698,755

2nd Issue in 2006
Mention of Singapore Pools being part of World Lottery Association (WLA). An international organization of 136 lotteries from 74 countries. They combined annual revenue in excess of US$120 billion.

1st Issue in 2008
Last Issue found on the web.

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13 comments:

mutual funds online said...

Thanks for this information. Nice blog. :)

Kreloses said...

You don't understand the law of large numbers.

Toto Tips & Predictions said...

Good insight on toto!

losta vina said...

I realise that most Group 1 & 2 winnings are mostly Qucik-Pick system...why...?

PAK DONI DI MALAYSIA said...

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saya mengucapkan banyak terimakasih kepada MBAH KABOIRENG yang telah menolong saya dalam kesulitan,ini tidak pernah terfikirkan dari benak saya kalau nomor yang saya pasang bisa tembus dan ALHAMDULILLAH kini saya sekeluarga sudah bisa melunasi semua hutang2 kami,sebenarnya saya bukan penggemar togel tapi apa boleh buat kondisi yang tidak memunkinkan dan akhirnya saya minta tolong sama MBAH KABOIRENG dan dengan senang hati MBAH KABOIRENG mau membantu saya..,ALHAMDULIL LAH nomor yang dikasi MBAH KABOIRENG semuanya bener2 terbukti tembus dan baru kali ini saya menemukan dukun yang jujur,jangan anda takut untuk menhubungiya jika anda ingin mendapatkan nomor yang betul2 tembus seperti saya,silahkan hubungi MBAH KABOIRENG DI 082=322=212=111 ingat kesempat tidak akan datang untuk yang kedua kalinga dan perlu anda ketahui kalau banyak dukun yang tercantum dalam internet,itu jangan dipercaya kalau bukan nama MBAH KABOIRENG KLIK TOGEL 2D 3D 4D 6D DISINI

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sanjeeta kuma said...

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sanjeeta kuma said...

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singapore pools analysis said...

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Daniel said...

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