Sunday, September 19, 2010

Don't be an idiot in Marina Bays Sands Casino

Resources:
Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA)

Before playing in a casino, you must realized you cannot beat the casino in the long run. But, you can find which games can let you play longer for entertainment purposes. Therefore, I decided to look at their payout rates of their various games from the CRA website.

Money Wheel


SymbolCompartmentsPayoutWinning %Expected Payout
Fan24146.2%0.923076923
Crackers12323.1%0.923076923
Lantern8515.4%0.923076923
Vase4107.7%0.846153846
Chopsticks2203.8%0.807692308
Lucky Charm1451.9%0.884615385
Gold Ingot1451.9%0.884615385
Total52  



Seems like betting on any of the 3 most probable outcome will let you last the longest while betting on Chopsticks gives the worst returns. Approximately 14% differences between the 2 best and worst outcomes. Don't play this game as later games provide better outcome

Sic Bo
Sic Bo Odds Website I used to check some of my numbers.




SectionPayoutWin %Expected Payout
Small / Big148.6%0.972222222
Odd / Even148.6%0.972222222
Specific Triples 1800.5%0.837962963
Specific Doubles 117.4%0.888888889
Any Triple 312.8%0.888888889
   
Three Dice TotalPayoutWin %Expected Payout
4 or 17 621.4%0.875
5 or 16 312.8%0.888888889
6 or 15 184.2%0.791666667
7 or 14 124.6%0.601851852
8 or 13 89.7%0.875
9 or 12 711.6%0.925925926
10 or 11 612.5%0.875
   
Two Dice ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
1 and 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
2 and 3, 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
3 and 4, 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
4 and 5 or 6 613.9%0.972222222
5 and 6 613.9%0.972222222
   
Three Single Die ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
126-135-234-256-346 302.8%0.861111111
123-136-145-235-356 302.8%0.861111111
124-146-236-245-456 302.8%0.861111111
125-134-156-246-345 302.8%0.861111111
    
Double Numbers With Single Die ComboPayoutWin %Expected Payout
112-113-114-115-116 501.4%0.708333333
221-223-224-225-226 501.4%0.708333333
331-332-334-335-336 501.4%0.708333333
441-442-443-445-446 501.4%0.708333333
551-552-553-554-556 501.4%0.708333333
661-662-663-664-665 501.4%0.708333333
    
Single Die Wager: PayoutWin %Expected Payout
Number on one Die/two Dice/three Dice1,2,1234.7%,6.9%,0.5%0.962962963
Three dice from four possible combinations:PayoutWin %Expected Payout
1-2-3-4 711.1%0.888888889
2-3-4-5 711.1%0.888888889
2-3-5-6 711.1%0.888888889
3-4-5-6 711.1%0.888888889


Betting on big/small and various other bet yield the result of 0.9722 meaning you lose around $0.0278 per $1 bet. Definitely better than the Money Wheel but careful not to bet on some of the bets that result in terrible losses per bet.

Roulette

Number/SectionPayoutWinning %Expected Payout
One number (Straight Up)352.7%0.972972973
Two numbers (Split)175.4%0.972972973
Three numbers (Street)118.1%0.972972973
Four numbers (Corner)810.8%0.972972973
6 numbers (Six Line)516.2%0.972972973
Column (12)232.4%0.972972973
Dozen (12)232.4%0.972972973
Low (1-18)148.6%0.972972973
High (19-36)148.6%0.972972973
Even / Odd148.6%0.972972973
Red / Black148.6%0.972972973


Interesting to note that the expected payout are exactly the same for all kinds for bets. The payout are also better than the money wheel game so it don't make sense to play the money wheel game.

I took a look at complete bet and still isn't 100% sure so I decides not to comment. However, Albert Einstein is reputed to have stated, "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it." But, most who steals or cheats are probably caught by Singapore strict watchers as seen in news.

I didn't examine most of the other games because they had certain variability like jackpot bonus, card games where card dealt can affect the current/next game.

Update: 24 Sep
I read about the Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) specification for casino games equipment and found an interesting note.

3.3.2 A game shall have at least one configuration setting that yields a minimum
theoretical statistical expectation that the minimum return-to-player
percentage
(RTP) of the game will be greater than or equal to 90.0% during
the expected lifetime of the game.


Just found it nice that casino gaming machines are not allowed to have a huge edge over the player but after some calculation I realized that 90% is just too huge an edge.

With an 90% RTP/Expected Returns, the following can be expected in 10 bets with an $1,000.


Bet #Amt Left from $1000
1900.00
2810.00
3729.00
4656.10
5590.49
6531.44
7478.30
8430.47
9387.42
10348.68

Playing in a game with 97.2% RTP

Therefore, you will have less than half your money if you used all your money in only 6 bets in an 90% RTP. However if you played in games with an 97.2% (Roulette), it became better.


Bet #Amt Left from $1000
1972.00
2944.78
3918.33
4892.62
5867.62
6843.33
7819.72
8796.76
9774.46
10752.77

Playing in a game with 97.2% RTP

You will have 75% of your money after 10 bets compared to 35% of your money after 10 bets in an 97.2% RTP. Nobody will gambled all-in in every bets so it isn't a realistic comparison but it shows the differences that 7.2% in odds can affect your money left. Nevertheless, people should not gamble thinking they will win the casino in the long run, especially in probability/luck based games.

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6 comments:

Donald said...

Good advice from Einstein there! There are some great games out there though and it really is great entertainment.

Andrew Tan said...

Great info on the payout and odds. I only play a few games like big/small and banker/player so the list you provide really help me to understand the games better.

SGBoleh
House Of ToTo

luckyace casino said...

Good job, I appreciate your idea of view for your professionalism, and I wish you a good day the pleasure of reading your future articles.
Thanks.

Jasmine.W said...

Coming for a tourist perspective, it's probably ok to lose some money for the sake of entertainment. They lose, we win. Bottom line.

Public Holiday Singapore

SuperD said...

I was just at the Marina Bay, and I saw so many people betting the specific totals on Sic Bo. I didn't realize how terrible the odds were until I Googled the odds on my iPhone while at the table. After that I stuck with Hi/Lo only. I would only bet Hi, if it was 8 or more times in a row Lo. If I lost, I would double my bet. I ended up winning around $150, but my nerves were frazzled a few times.

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