Sunday, September 19, 2010

Making 124% with Sports Betting Week #41



Final closing winning bet
$ 10.0 Fund Carryover
$1,356.8 Winning From MIDDLESBROUGH vs READING

$1,366.8 Final Fund (from $1,100 invested)

Stats Summary
Profit = $ 266.8 over $1,100 (24%)
Inactive weeks = 23 of 41 (56%)
Bets won = 12 of 48 (25%)

Looking at the chart, there was only 2 times over the 41 weeks where the returns is over investment. On paper, the 24% returns in less than a year (41 weeks) looks impressive but I rather call this a lucky sequence given the possible problems that goes wrong.

Big Problems with system
Assuming last bet of $640 lost
It will takes 13 months of $100 funding to allow for a next bet. An addicted gambler who can resist a 13 months of inactivity, should already quit. Assuming the next bet of $1,280 won, the ROI will be 7.9% for 93 weeks.

Chances of exponential bets
Given the bet won percentage of 25%, running a simulation test program of 10,000 runs, the maximum bet easily reached $17,179,869,183 which is a crazy amount. Even with a better win percentage of close to 50%, there is still a chance of getting a long stretch of losing streak.

Conclusion
This betting system is better left untouched.

Sports Bet History Table


Week #Week InvestmentWinningsBetsFund LeftBets MadeLast Bets WonTotal Investment MadeROIInactive?
11000208040100100.0%0
2011.53556.54110091.5%0
300506.53010056.5%0
40102.5357443100109.0%0
5100090848020087.0%0
6008046020042.0%0
70004002002.0%1
80004002002.0%1
9100010044030034.7%0
100828061230028.7%0
110006003002.0%1
120006003002.0%1
13100010063040026.5%0
14016880942240043.5%0
150080141040023.5%0
1600014004003.5%1
17100080341050022.8%0
1800034005006.8%1
1900034005006.8%1
2000034005006.8%1
21100001340060022.3%1
220001340060022.3%1
230001340060022.3%1
241000160741070033.4%0
250336320902170058.6%0
26000900070012.9%1
27000900070012.9%1
281000160301080023.8%0
290320320301180043.8%0
3006403203501180083.8%0
310003500080043.8%1
32100004500090050.0%1
330004500090050.0%1
340004500090050.0%1
350004500090050.0%1
361000055000100055.0%1
3700055000100055.0%1
3800055000100055.0%1
3900055000100055.0%1
4010006401010110059.1%0
4101356.801366.8011100124.3%1
Sum11003016.82750 4812  23

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